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From 2017 to 2019, 7 WRs were taking in RD1 of the NFL Draft. 4 of the 7 lost value from initial ADP (May rookie year) to May of their Sophomore year. Corey Davis (17%), Mike Williams (29%), John Ross (60%) and N'Keal Harry (48%).
DJ Moore, Marquise Brown & Calvin Ridley gained 25% or more.
From 2017 to 2019, 16 WRs were taking in RD2 of the NFL Draft. 6 of the 16 lost value, with the biggest losers being Isabella (51%), JJAW (52%), Campbell (34%), C. Samuel (36%) & Zay Jones (34%).
The massive value risers also came from the 2nd round. Deebo (87%), AJ Brown (172%), Juju (204%) and Metcalf (79%).
From 2017 to 2019, 10 WRs were taking in RD3 of the NFL Draft. 5 of the 10 lost value, with the biggest losers being Carlos Henderson (45%). Of the 5, besides Henderson, the others did not lose more than 25% value.
Some massive value risers also came from RD3 with Cooper Kupp gaining 181% value and Terry McLaurin gaining 224% value. Diontae Johnson (75%), Tre'Quan Smith (40%) and Chris Godwin (28%) also went up.
As a whole, day 2 or better WRs drafted during 2017-2019 cumulatively lost only 3% value. And this number, as you can tell by the prior posts, has some very massive variance.
Summary of the findings? Drafting a WR in a rookie draft is a dicier proposition to get a value spike. IF you hit on the right ones at the right price, you can see a massive spike, but taking WRs in the draft is generally not as wise of an investment as taking a RB.
