Here's why Mitrovic will be in GW1 team and why he should be in yours!

Let’s start to look at his stats from the last time he played in the Premier League in the 2018-19.

#FPL #FPLcommunity @OfficialFPL

This is compared to other FWD that season!
Minutes: 3.281 (1st)
Goals: 11 (14th)
xG: 16.12 (4th)
npxG: 15.35 (1st)
Assists: 4 (15th)
xA: 6.43 (9th)
Shots: 131 (1th)
3.35/90
On target: 48 (1th)
1.15/90
In box: 96 (1th)
BC: 23 (joint 4th)
BCM: 15
xPts: 185.5 (1th)
44% GI (6th)

These stats are absolutely insane especially since he played for a team that finished 19th and only scored 34 goals. His Goal Involvment of 44% means that he’s involved in nearly half of all the Fulham goals.

Last season stats
Now let’s look at his stats from last season 2019/20 (championship)
Since it's the championship I don't have access to the same data!

Minutes: 3589
Goals: 26
xG: 24.25
Assists: 2
Goals+Assists/90: 0.78
Goal Involvement: 44%
Shots on target/90: 1.39
Shots per 90: 3.79
On target%: 37.7
BCM: 12
KP per game: 1.1
BCC: 6
Once again a GI of 44%

One big difference compared to his PL season is that he overperformed his xG which he wasn’t able to do in the PL. That might be due to the lesser quality in the championship but also because he’s only 25 years old and has probably developed and been getting more clinical.

2017/18 vs 2019/20
Now here’s a very interesting comparison I’ll show, his stats in the championship 2017/18 (the season before his incredible stats in the pl) versus his stats this season 2019/20.

Games: 38 vs 18
Goals: 26 vs 12
Assists: 2 vs 1
Goals+Assists/90: 0.78 vs 0.80
Goal Involvement: 44% vs 17%
Shots on target/90: 1.39 vs 1.59
Shots per 90: 3.79 vs 4.43
On target%: 37.7 vs 36%

Mitro joined halfway through the season on the right, the stats are very similar which hopefully also means that his attacking numbers will be similar to his last PL season if not even better since he’s gained experience and been getting more clinical.

Last time in the PL Fulham only scored 34 goals which isn’t huge, with a new manager it’ll be hard to tell how many goals they’ll score now. So I did some research on the difference between total goals in PL vs Championship on different teams!

I will look at teams that scored 75 goals or less and got promoted since Fulham only scored 63 goals!
Championship goals vs PL goals

Cardiff 69 vs 34 (-35)
Huddersfield: 56 vs 28 (-28)
Middlesbrough: 63 vs 27 (-36)
Burnley 72 vs 39 (-33)
Hull City 69 vs 37 (-32)

32.8 was the average difference, so we can expect Fulham to score around 33 less goals, they scored 63 goals last season so in the PL they'll probably score around 30 goals.
With Mitros 44% GI we can expect him to be involved in around 13 goals (30x0.44=13.2).

And I believe it’ll be slightly higher around 16/17 GI just for the fact that he has become a better striker and has been getting more clinical and has started to outperform his xG. So my expectation is that he'll score around 14 goals and 2 assists.

Bookings!

One negative thing about owning Mitro is his bad temper which results in plenty of bookings!
He has played 159 league games in England and has gotten 25YC 2 RC

Let's try to work out how many YCs he'll get this year!

25/159= 0.16 That means that he get's a YC every 0.16 game.

38x0.16= 6
If he continues to average 0.16 YC he'll get 6 YCs this season.

2/159=0.012
0.012x38=0.456
Most likely no RC but you never know with Mitro

He's no BPS magnet, this is his BPS from last PL season!
3-1 loss 1G 6 pts 0 BPS

4-2 2G, 1A 16 pts 3 BPS

2-2 1G 1 YC 5pts 0 BPS

1-1 1G 0 YC 8pts 2 BPS

3-2 2G 13 pts 3 BPS

1-0 1G 6 pts 1 BPS

4-2 2G 13 pts 3 BPS

1-0 1G 1 YC 5 pts 0 BPS

Total: 12 BPS with 11 goals

For every goal he averages 1 BPS, that’s due to his YC and that he doesn’t get BPS when Fulham loses and if he doesn't score a brace! So with our projection of him scoring 14 goals I guess we can expect around 12 BPS again since he won’t score a brace that often.

Projected Points
(38x2=76) + (14x4=56)+12BPS+(2x3=6) - 6 (YC) =145 points
If he's fit he'll play every minute (38x2=76). With my thinking of him getting around 14 goals Mitro will get 56 points from goals (14x4=56). Also 12 BPS + 6 assist points and -6 for YC. That adds up to 145

If he gets 145 points his PPM would ne 24.2
(145/6.0= 24.2)

If we compare that to last season's striker on PPM we can see that he would be ranked 4th.

1 .Ings 6.0 33 PPM
2 .Ayew 5.0 26.4 PPM
3. Jimenez 7.5 25.9 PPM
4. Vardy 9.0: 23.3 PPM
5. Wood: 6.5 20.9 ppm

Personally I don't see Points Per Million as an effective measurement tool but for the people that do that makes Mitro even more attractive.

As you already now he's only cost 6.0 and on top of that his heatmap is very good for a no.9 since he basically lives in the penalty area. He's always in the box and always gets shots away!

His first 10 fixtures are very good and he always start off explosive, last time in the PL he scored 5 goals in the first 6 games! If he manages to get 145 points that's a GW average of 3.8. I therfore think that he'll get around 38 points in the first fixtures which is great!

Thank you for reading, as always likes and RTs are appreciated! Personally Mitro is 99% locked in my GW1 team, will he be in yours?

Stats from: @FFH_HQ @fbref @SofaScoreINT