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Today @ToddHarrisonDC and I published our latest analysis on the FY 2021 defense budget request!
A few highlights
Per the last budget agreement (BBA 2019) reached by Congress, the admin requested $740.5B for 050 national defense ($705B for 051 DoD) in discretionary $$$
A few highlights
Per the last budget agreement (BBA 2019) reached by Congress, the admin requested $740.5B for 050 national defense ($705B for 051 DoD) in discretionary $$$
Big winner in DoD relative to last year's projections?
RDT&E in FY21, but still expected to fall in the future.
Procurement funding loses out in FY21 and continues to decrease in FY22. With RDT&E/proc. falling, the future of modernization $ not promising, despite NDS priorities
RDT&E in FY21, but still expected to fall in the future.
Procurement funding loses out in FY21 and continues to decrease in FY22. With RDT&E/proc. falling, the future of modernization $ not promising, despite NDS priorities
As widely reported, funding for Nat. Nuclear Security Admin (part of 053 atomic energy) saw almost a $3B increase in FY21 over FY20's projection. With the total defense topline locked at $740.5B, that's coming out of DoD's funding. NNSA expects to maintain that ~$20B budget
FY25
FY25
OCO funding for FY21 set by BBA 2019 at $69B, then projected to fall to $20B in FY22-21, $10B in FY24-25. With BCA budget caps expiring in FY22, OCO should hypothetically revert to funding for war needs only. Look out for that in DoD's FY22 request.
With the deficit estimated to >$3.7T in FY20 (per CBO in June) following the response to COVID, what will happen to defense spending? History, though not a reliable predictor, suggests a deficit-driven downturn as seen in the 1980s and post-2008.
Read the whole report here! https://defense360.csis.org/analysis-of-the-fy-2021-defense-budget/
