Here's the latest on @Illinois_Alma and COVID-19:

30K saliva-based tests were performed this week as students began returning to the Urbana campus...

... with ~100 positive COVID-19 cases identified among students and employees. /1

@ILNewsroom
UI researchers say they predict there will be a "bump" in (+) COVID-19 cases: about 200 in the first few weeks.

Nigel Goldenfeld: Those cases are "due to imports, not community transmission."

The (+) cases will then drop, thanks to fast test results + immediate isolation. /2
More on how modeling of COVID-19 spread on the U of I campus is done, according to @NigelGoldenfeld.

He says they take into account how the virus spreads AND make "conservative worst-case" assumptions about student behavior, re: party-going and gatherings, etc.

/3
The @Illinois_Alma campus will launch a public database on Mon, Aug. 24, which will report:

-the total number of COVID-19 tests performed
-the number of tests performed each day
-the number of (+) cases per day
-the daily positivity rate
-the 5-day average positivity rate /4
I asked whether the specific locations on campus, where outbreaks and clusters of COVID-19 cases are being detected, will be reported.

The answer: No.

@CU_PublicHealth's Julie Pryde says clusters are reported only if it's necessary to protect public health to do so... /5
More on why the location of outbreaks on the U of I Urbana campus won't be reported:

Julie Pryde: Rapid testing will allow positive cases, exposed people to be isolated/quarantined immediately, so there's no longer risk to public in that area. ... /6
With twice-a-week COVID-19 testing, mask-wearing and other mitigation efforts, U of I's modelers expect ~700 cases this semester...

~200 brought in by students, the rest caused primarily by spread at restaurants, bars, classrooms, as shown in this graph: /8
As a former chemist, I find the ins and outs of saliva-based test developed at U of I really interesting.

They managed to find ways to avoid supply chain bottlenecks & simplify the overall process w/o compromising on accuracy/sensitivity.

More here:
https://illinoisnewsroom.org/in-effort-to-reopen-safely-some-universities-plan-for-widespread-covid-19-testing/ /9
One more tidbit from today's press call:

Anyone exposed to someone with COVID-19 must quarantine for the FULL 14 days, per @CU_PublicHealth's Julie Pryde. There's no option to "test out of quarantine."

My story about all this stuff... coming to you soon via
@ILNewsroom
/END
oh and one more thing -- UI chemist Martin Burke shared this graph that looks at the positivity rate for COVID-19 tests on the Urbana campus, going back to July.

The peak at ~1.5% dropped to 0.2% and now hovers under 0.5%.

Testing capacity is now up to 20K/day, Burke says.
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