Thread #Lebanon #Syria

For 8 years & while #Syria suffered from devastating war, #Lebanon seemed largely immune from what was happening next door

In just one year, all has changed

Rescuing #Lebanon now seems intertwined with how the West views Hezbollah, #Iran and Damascus =>

2-To say #Lebanon 's citizens are shocked by speed of change is an understatement. It was less than year ago when apparent fissures in the system were too small to matter. While some warned & wondered if the good times would last, the majority was oblivious to what lied ahead

3-Once its financial system became unglued like house of cards, #Lebanon already entered a new chapter

As if this wasn't enough, #BeirutExplosion was the horrific final blow that shook #Lebanon ' citizens and the way they viewed relationship with any authority

4-One would have thought Western capitals would treat the explosion as an earthquake to which they would pour unconditional help and money

Not only Western leaders seemed reluctant to do that but many of #Lebanon 's own citizens did not want them to do so either

5-To say that the political backdrop in #Lebanon is now toxic is an understatement

Old wounds and fissures are all out in the open

What started as financial / banking crisis quickly morphed into regional politics dominated by discussions over role of Hezbollah, #Iran #Syria

6-Western capitals took notice. The long held policy / hope of getting rid of #Hezbollah could now be undertaken by #Lebanon 's own citizens

And the angrier / poorer are those citizens the higher are the chances and pressure on the system that Hezbollah & its allies dominate

7-Remember that post #Iraq debacle, Western foreign policy objectives are more likely to be achieved using economic rather than military means

For the West, there is now negative correlation between the well being of #Lebanon 's citizens & perceived survival of #Hezbollah

8-With this backdrop, helping #Lebanon now for the West is akin to helping #Hezbollah

In other words, help ain't happening

Not only that but the more the suffering of the Avg citizen, the higher the chances of success (yes, its a brutal & cold hearted world out there)

9-The different political parties in #Lebanon become automatic pawns in this game

Yes, many of those parties happened to genuinely share the same objectives of those Western capitals and much of their objections to #Hezbollah are both domestic, legitimate & genuine

10-This is how #Lebanon 's fate has now become intertwined with #Syria #Iran and the region

It is inconceivable for Lebanon to make it without outside financial help

It also seems equally inconceivable that this help will come with #Hezbollah as dominant domestically

11-But what about #Syria #Iran

Language you hear with respect to withholding aid to #Lebanon till #Hezbollah 's power is eliminated is no different than policy of imposing sanctions on Damascus till Assad is gone

This however is mere wishlist

Neither is going to happen

12-For years now, we have been told how #Iran controls Assad. Narrative has long been that #Syria 's leader is fully controlled by Tehran

No matter how much one tried to explain otherwise, it was hard to shake this false narrative that was built on an equally faulty foundation

13-Fact is that Assad sees in #Iran a perfect ally. It showed up to help during the war when no one in the world did at the time. Contrary to consensus, it asks for little in return for this help

Well....sort of....Tehran expects / hopes Assad's support to #Hezbollah continues

14-Based on how important #Hezbollah is to #Iran as a defensive deterrence, it is actually

Tehran that needs Assad more than Assad needs Tehran

Particularly after #Russia 's entry in #Syria 's war as a direct military combatant

15- #Syria policy has been an utter failure because of this deep long held false understanding of the Damascus / Tehran relationship

Sadly, most of the analysis has been based on repeating faulty narratives inside echo chamber of expert observers, Think Tanks & policy makers

16-Truth is that Washington can sanction all the air & water in #Syria

Assad will not transition out of power

This myth must stop

He did not do it during in 2012 or pre #Russia 's entry in 2015 or taking back of #Aleppo in 2016

He will not do it now

#INSA

17-Does Washington really believe that Assad will yield to the sanctions pressure and come to the table / hold elections with international supervision and with Diaspora voting per UNSC 2254?

Who knows?

Washington must appear to be doing "something" & Sanctions it is

18- #Syria 's opposition has long blamed Obama for not having sent the marines into Damascus or provided the armed groups with MANPADS

Post #Iraq debacle no US President is likely to repeat that mistake. Voters won't allow it

As for MANPADS, think of #Nusra #ISIS with those

19-Obama's way of dealing with #Syria 's opposition & interventionists around him was to throw both a bone every time the pressure got too intense

Enter Arm & Train where vetted rebels would receive weapons from CIA. Such weapons of course ended up with non-vetted groups..Dah!

20-Sanctions became the go-to policy choice

It was the bone that Washington threw in direction of interventionists & opposition to show them that it really hates Assad and wants hime gone

See am sanctioning him more. he will soon give up & walk away. Just wait..

is the line

21-Above Logic used in #Syria has now gone into copy/paste phase for #Lebanon  

Keep the Economic pressure till the public becomes so poor & unhappy that they hold a Board meeting and fire #Hezbollah

And just like the sanctions on Syria, just wait

Policy will work "ultimately"