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Thread #Lebanon 
#Syria
For 8 years & while #Syria suffered from devastating war, #Lebanon seemed largely immune from what was happening next door
In just one year, all has changed
Rescuing #Lebanon now seems intertwined with how the West views Hezbollah, #Iran and Damascus =>
#Syria For 8 years & while #Syria suffered from devastating war, #Lebanon
seemed largely immune from what was happening next doorIn just one year, all has changed
Rescuing #Lebanon
now seems intertwined with how the West views Hezbollah, #Iran and Damascus =>
2-To say #Lebanon 's citizens are shocked by speed of change is an understatement. It was less than year ago when apparent fissures in the system were too small to matter. While some warned & wondered if the good times would last, the majority was oblivious to what lied ahead
's citizens are shocked by speed of change is an understatement. It was less than year ago when apparent fissures in the system were too small to matter. While some warned & wondered if the good times would last, the majority was oblivious to what lied ahead
3-Once its financial system became unglued like house of cards, #Lebanon already entered a new chapter
As if this wasn't enough, #BeirutExplosion was the horrific final blow that shook #Lebanon ' citizens and the way they viewed relationship with any authority
already entered a new chapter As if this wasn't enough, #BeirutExplosion was the horrific final blow that shook #Lebanon
' citizens and the way they viewed relationship with any authority
4-One would have thought Western capitals would treat the explosion as an earthquake to which they would pour unconditional help and money
Not only Western leaders seemed reluctant to do that but many of #Lebanon 's own citizens did not want them to do so either
Not only Western leaders seemed reluctant to do that but many of #Lebanon
's own citizens did not want them to do so either
5-To say that the political backdrop in #Lebanon is now toxic is an understatement
Old wounds and fissures are all out in the open
What started as financial / banking crisis quickly morphed into regional politics dominated by discussions over role of Hezbollah, #Iran #Syria
is now toxic is an understatement Old wounds and fissures are all out in the open
What started as financial / banking crisis quickly morphed into regional politics dominated by discussions over role of Hezbollah, #Iran #Syria
6-Western capitals took notice. The long held policy / hope of getting rid of #Hezbollah could now be undertaken by #Lebanon 's own citizens
And the angrier / poorer are those citizens the higher are the chances and pressure on the system that Hezbollah & its allies dominate
's own citizens And the angrier / poorer are those citizens the higher are the chances and pressure on the system that Hezbollah & its allies dominate
7-Remember that post #Iraq debacle, Western foreign policy objectives are more likely to be achieved using economic rather than military means
For the West, there is now negative correlation between the well being of #Lebanon 's citizens & perceived survival of #Hezbollah
For the West, there is now negative correlation between the well being of #Lebanon
's citizens & perceived survival of #Hezbollah
8-With this backdrop, helping #Lebanon now for the West is akin to helping #Hezbollah
In other words, help ain't happening
Not only that but the more the suffering of the Avg citizen, the higher the chances of success (yes, its a brutal & cold hearted world out there)
now for the West is akin to helping #Hezbollah In other words, help ain't happening
Not only that but the more the suffering of the Avg citizen, the higher the chances of success (yes, its a brutal & cold hearted world out there)
9-The different political parties in #Lebanon become automatic pawns in this game
Yes, many of those parties happened to genuinely share the same objectives of those Western capitals and much of their objections to #Hezbollah are both domestic, legitimate & genuine
become automatic pawns in this game Yes, many of those parties happened to genuinely share the same objectives of those Western capitals and much of their objections to #Hezbollah are both domestic, legitimate & genuine
10-This is how #Lebanon 's fate has now become intertwined with #Syria #Iran and the region
It is inconceivable for Lebanon to make it without outside financial help
It also seems equally inconceivable that this help will come with #Hezbollah as dominant domestically
's fate has now become intertwined with #Syria #Iran and the region It is inconceivable for Lebanon to make it without outside financial help
It also seems equally inconceivable that this help will come with #Hezbollah as dominant domestically
11-But what about #Syria #Iran
Language you hear with respect to withholding aid to #Lebanon till #Hezbollah 's power is eliminated is no different than policy of imposing sanctions on Damascus till Assad is gone
This however is mere wishlist
Neither is going to happen
Language you hear with respect to withholding aid to #Lebanon
till #Hezbollah 's power is eliminated is no different than policy of imposing sanctions on Damascus till Assad is gone This however is mere wishlist
Neither is going to happen
12-For years now, we have been told how #Iran controls Assad. Narrative has long been that #Syria 's leader is fully controlled by Tehran
No matter how much one tried to explain otherwise, it was hard to shake this false narrative that was built on an equally faulty foundation
No matter how much one tried to explain otherwise, it was hard to shake this false narrative that was built on an equally faulty foundation
13-Fact is that Assad sees in #Iran a perfect ally. It showed up to help during the war when no one in the world did at the time. Contrary to consensus, it asks for little in return for this help
Well....sort of....Tehran expects / hopes Assad's support to #Hezbollah continues
Well....sort of....Tehran expects / hopes Assad's support to #Hezbollah continues
14-Based on how important #Hezbollah is to #Iran as a defensive deterrence, it is actually
Tehran that needs Assad more than Assad needs Tehran
Particularly after #Russia 's entry in #Syria 's war as a direct military combatant
Tehran that needs Assad more than Assad needs Tehran
Particularly after #Russia 's entry in #Syria 's war as a direct military combatant
15- #Syria policy has been an utter failure because of this deep long held false understanding of the Damascus / Tehran relationship
Sadly, most of the analysis has been based on repeating faulty narratives inside echo chamber of expert observers, Think Tanks & policy makers
Sadly, most of the analysis has been based on repeating faulty narratives inside echo chamber of expert observers, Think Tanks & policy makers
16-Truth is that Washington can sanction all the air & water in #Syria
Assad will not transition out of power
This myth must stop
He did not do it during in 2012 or pre #Russia 's entry in 2015 or taking back of #Aleppo in 2016
He will not do it now
#INSA
Assad will not transition out of power
This myth must stop
He did not do it during in 2012 or pre #Russia 's entry in 2015 or taking back of #Aleppo in 2016
He will not do it now
#INSA
17-Does Washington really believe that Assad will yield to the sanctions pressure and come to the table / hold elections with international supervision and with Diaspora voting per UNSC 2254?
Who knows?
Washington must appear to be doing "something" & Sanctions it is
Who knows?
Washington must appear to be doing "something" & Sanctions it is
18- #Syria 's opposition has long blamed Obama for not having sent the marines into Damascus or provided the armed groups with MANPADS
Post #Iraq debacle no US President is likely to repeat that mistake. Voters won't allow it
As for MANPADS, think of #Nusra #ISIS with those
Post #Iraq debacle no US President is likely to repeat that mistake. Voters won't allow it
As for MANPADS, think of #Nusra #ISIS with those
19-Obama's way of dealing with #Syria 's opposition & interventionists around him was to throw both a bone every time the pressure got too intense
Enter Arm & Train where vetted rebels would receive weapons from CIA. Such weapons of course ended up with non-vetted groups..Dah!
Enter Arm & Train where vetted rebels would receive weapons from CIA. Such weapons of course ended up with non-vetted groups..Dah!
20-Sanctions became the go-to policy choice
It was the bone that Washington threw in direction of interventionists & opposition to show them that it really hates Assad and wants hime gone
See am sanctioning him more. he will soon give up & walk away. Just wait..
is the line
It was the bone that Washington threw in direction of interventionists & opposition to show them that it really hates Assad and wants hime gone
See am sanctioning him more. he will soon give up & walk away. Just wait..
is the line
21-Above Logic used in #Syria has now gone into copy/paste phase for #Lebanon
Keep the Economic pressure till the public becomes so poor & unhappy that they hold a Board meeting and fire #Hezbollah
And just like the sanctions on Syria, just wait
Policy will work "ultimately"
Keep the Economic pressure till the public becomes so poor & unhappy that they hold a Board meeting and fire #Hezbollah
And just like the sanctions on Syria, just wait
Policy will work "ultimately"
