ISW's #Russia team ( @georgewbarros & @Mason_R_Clark) has been tracking the unfolding Russian intervention in #Belarus since August 14, when they caught & published the first warning indicator. They're hitting it out of the park.

Here's their work with some excerpts 1/

14 AUG

"Warning: #Russia May Send “Little Green Men” to #Belarus"

Key indicator was a change in Russian state media portrayal of protests, explained below

http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-russia-may-send-little-green.html

15 AUG 12:00 pm EDT

"Warning: Russian Hybrid Intervention into #Belarus is Likely Imminent"

New indicators including a Lukashenko- #Putin call strengthen their 14 AUG warning

http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-russian-hybrid-intervention.html

15 AUG 4:00 pm EDT

"Warning: Belarusian President #Lukashenko Reaches Agreement with the Kremlin for Russian Intervention"

The ISW team caught & quickly published early signs of a possible Russian troop mobilization

ht @IsabelIvanescu for map support

http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-belarusian-president-lukashenko.html

16 AUG

"Warning: Lukashenko Seems to Lack Strategy as Peaceful Protests Grow"

Lukashenko's counter-protest fails & he starts looking shaky

http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-lukashenko-seems-to-lack.html

17 AUG 5:00 pm EDT

"Warning: #Russia and #Belarus Launch Military Exercises"

Further indications of military mobilization emerge as Lukashenko starts losing a key support base: state enterprise workers

http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-russia-and-belarus-launch.html

17 AUG 7:00 pm EDT

"Warning: Telegram Channel NEXTA Provokes Turning Point in #Belarus Protests"

Protesters marched on a detention facility where allegations of torture of detained protesters has emerged but the protest's cohesion faltered

http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-telegram-channel-nexta-provokes.html

18 AUG 1:00 pm EDT

"Warning: Belarusian Opposition Reaches out to Kremlin"

#Putin rejects #France & #Germany as they push for a transition

Meanwhile, Belarusian opposition leaders begin to posture to gain Russian support, giving Putin options

http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-belarussian-opposition-reaches.html

19 AUG 11:00am EDT

"Warning: Kremlin Begins Security Forces Support for Lukashenko Following Regional Security Service Defection"

Russian National Guard & FSB deploy to #Belarus as Lukashenko orders forces to "neutralize" protest leaders & restore order

http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-kremlin-begins-security-forces.html

20 AUG 11:00am EDT

"Warning: Kremlin Enables Lukashenko to Resume Crackdown in #Belarus as Protest Movement Pauses"

Under pressure, Grodno local government reverses support 4 protests

Kremlin poisons Russian opposition leader 2 dissuade similar unrest

http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-kremlin-enables-lukashenko-to.html

20 AUG 7:00 pm EDT

"Warning: Lukashenko’s Kremlin-Backed Media Campaign"

Signs indicate #Russia starts helping #Belarus run a more effective disinformation campaign as Russia's own state media ramps up efforts to discredit protests & their leaders

http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-lukashenkos-kremlin-backed.html

21 AUG 7:30pm EDT

“Warning: #Moscow Sets Conditions for Kinetic Intervention in #Belarus Through New Information Operation”

#Russia is now outright controlling Belarusian media

See here for a list of key narratives in its information operation

http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-moscow-sets-conditions-for.html?m=1