I read the indictment.

If the prosecution has the evidence it lays out - text messages, emails, bank records detailing the money laundering & how millions in donations were spent on other than the stated fundraising purpose claimed in the ads?

Bannon will go to prison.
In the meantime, it’s clear this will go to trial, as Bannon insists this is a political targeting case. https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1296810858882961408?s=20
In numerous ads and public statements, especially during the time the 4 men were trying to persuade the donors to “opt in” to the newly created fund they controlled, they repeatedly promised 2 specific things:

1) all the money to build the 1/2 mile of the Wall
2) Kolfage would not receive any salary.

If you followed the campaign at the time, then you are well aware that yes, these two specific claims were made by Bannon & Co. numerous times in ads transmitted via TV, radio, internet.
So the burden the prosecution has to get convictions in this case:

1) prove millions of the donated money WERE NOT SPENT building the 1/2 mile section of wall

and

2) prove Kolfage received some of the donated money.

That’s it.

That’s all the State has to prove.
If you read indictment - and I have - you will find it contains actual quotes from text messages Bannon & Co. exchanged discussing how to launder the donated $ they were taking from the fund & giving to themselves & to Kolfage.
So **if** these text messages & bank records are real, detailing the use of shell companies to launder the money, that means the prosecution is gonna have no trouble whatsoever establishing BOTH burdens of proof.
For SDNY to have faked all this evidence to bring a money laundering and wire fraud case against a guy who isn’t even a Trump associate now and hasn’t been for over three years requires too many assumptions.

Occam’s Razor: Bannon & Co. did it.

We’ll see what happens.

/end
ADDENDUM: Good question: “Why SDNY?”

1) Audrey Strauss wants to keep that job. See Maxwell case.

2) If Bannon helped commit a massive fraud targeting MAGA, nobody would want to see Bannon in prison for that more than the vindictive son of a bitch Donald J. Trump.
It helps to remember in all the media hysteria over this case that President Trump:

1) fired Bannon 3 yrs ago & they have no association any longer
2) did not ask for this project
3) did not endorse it
4) never asked anyone to donate to it
5) was publicly critical of it
Let's not forget Bannon was out for revenge after Trump kicked his ass out of the White House.

Read Trump's tweet carefully. A lot of the appeals for "Build The Wall" had as it's locus "Trump isn't getting it done, let's do it ourselves!" https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1282276752090431490?s=20
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