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Mearsheimer typically lucid & on point in this interview w @kenji_minemura. What I find discordant though is his sanguinity wrt potential Dem admin standing up to PRC bid for regional hegemony in Asia. I HOPE he's right but color me v worried. HARD choices/ROUGH waters ahead. 1/ https://twitter.com/kenji_minemura/status/1295139726500929536
Some examples of tough/hard things: JM points out that we need to be prepared to fight limited nuclear w PRC. Correct. Need to be prepared to defend Taiwan or our position in Asia deeply undermined. Correct. Japan & other allies need to spend more on defense. Correct. 2/
US & Japan need to deploy conventional INF-class missiles. Correct. US needs to be prepared to use nuclear weapons first in event of conventional defeat wrt ally like Japan. Correct. US needs more land-based alternatives to aircraft carriers across Asia. Correct. 3/
US-PRC econ cooperation "slowly beginning to disappear." So US needs to decouple at least in significant part. Correct. Et cetera. You get the idea. 4/
Do these sound like easy calls? What happens to resolute competition if voices calling for greater cooperation re clim change, pandems, etc w Beijing "while competing" with China are in charge? To Taiwan preparats if those who want to "steady" relations w Beijing are empowered?5/
What about MR/IRBCM deployment & prep for limited nuclear war if arms control advocates who want to resuscitate INF are in lead? What happens to getting Japan to spend more on defense & options for dispersed basing if the priority is to make nice & show comity w allies/parts? 6/
What happens to selective decoupling if the "end of the trade war" & "stability" in trade is the goal? Etc. US certainly can do better & needs nuanced policy - but fundamentally needs resolute, unflinching directedness to adapt, whoever is in power. No time or margin to lose. 7/
