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Below you find our recent short-term GDP growth forecasts for the US, Eurozone and Finland.
The figures are very dire. We don't actually see any recovery for the next 2-3 years (detailed in our Q-Reviews).
Here's a short thread, why our view is so 'dark'. 1/7
@GnSEconomics
The figures are very dire. We don't actually see any recovery for the next 2-3 years (detailed in our Q-Reviews).
Here's a short thread, why our view is so 'dark'. 1/7
@GnSEconomics
The economic hit of the #coronavirus has been just massive. Basically never in modern times have we seen so steep declines in GDP, which we witnessed in Q2 this year.
But, there are four issues, which have made our forecasts for the world #economy so dire. 2/
But, there are four issues, which have made our forecasts for the world #economy so dire. 2/
This first one is the fact that the growth already faltered in late 2019.
The Eurozone fell into a recession in Q4 2019, and the US economy would probably have fallen into one in Q1 2020, even without the (massive) impact of the #coronavirus pandemic. 3/ https://gnseconomics.com/2019/03/27/recession-cometh/
The Eurozone fell into a recession in Q4 2019, and the US economy would probably have fallen into one in Q1 2020, even without the (massive) impact of the #coronavirus pandemic. 3/ https://gnseconomics.com/2019/03/27/recession-cometh/
Second is the fact the "high frequency" indicators have flattened or are heading back down.
While economic growth has rebounded, somewhat, the rebound has been worryingly mild (PMI:s have barely remained in growth territory after a massive slump). 4/ https://twitter.com/GnSEconomics/status/1296000449057710080
While economic growth has rebounded, somewhat, the rebound has been worryingly mild (PMI:s have barely remained in growth territory after a massive slump). 4/ https://twitter.com/GnSEconomics/status/1296000449057710080
Third is the extremely troubling state of the European banking sector.
For few years we have been warning that it will be unable to cope with a #recession, not to mention an economic depression, which has now effectively started in the Eurozone. 5/ https://gnseconomics.com/2020/05/22/the-approaching-european-global-banking-crisis/
For few years we have been warning that it will be unable to cope with a #recession, not to mention an economic depression, which has now effectively started in the Eurozone. 5/ https://gnseconomics.com/2020/05/22/the-approaching-european-global-banking-crisis/
Fourth is the second wave of the #coronavirus pandemic, which may have already started. It would lead us into the 'Apocalyptic' scenario on which we warned in May this year.
However, its root cause are the destructive policies of the #centralbanks . 6/ https://gnseconomics.com/2020/08/17/what-now/
However, its root cause are the destructive policies of the #centralbanks . 6/ https://gnseconomics.com/2020/08/17/what-now/
Alas, we conclude:
"If the world confronts another round of extended global lockdowns, these would all but annihilate the global economy and financial markets.
Extreme vigilance in all business and investment activity is thus highly encouraged."
/End https://gnseconomics.com/deprcon-service2/
"If the world confronts another round of extended global lockdowns, these would all but annihilate the global economy and financial markets.
Extreme vigilance in all business and investment activity is thus highly encouraged."
/End https://gnseconomics.com/deprcon-service2/
