Along w/ Moscow and Warsaw, Pyongyang must be one capital where they are closely watching Belarus. In terms of domestic and international politics, Belarus has some similarities to DPRK. There are negative and positive messages for the Kim dynasty from the Belarusian case. /1

The negative message is that the stability of autocratic systems is never guaranteed. The population is loyal and obedient until it suddenly isn't. /2

The good news for Pyongyang is that the Lukashenko regime has not been abandoned by its great-power ally, Russia, w/ the Kremlin signaling support for the embattled Belarusian dictator. /3

Akin to Moscow's backing of Lukashenko to preclude the absorption of Belarus by the West, Beijing can be expected to intervene on behalf of the North Korean regime so as to prevent the annexation of the North by the US-allied South. 4/4