Read on Twitter
1/ The latest Panglong peace conference wraps up today in Nay Pyi Taw, after three days. Back in June I wrote a report for #CrisisGroup looking ahead to this conference and what it means for the peace process in Myanmar. Some more thoughts below. https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/308-rebooting-myanmars-stalled-peace-process
2/ The fact that Panglong has happened at all is positive. Over the past nine months or so, negotiators have worked hard on several agreements to improve ceasefire implementation and ensure the peace process continues after the election, regardless of the result.
3/ Negotiators have also been working on principles for a future federal union. This hasn’t been all smooth; just before the conference, there was a disagreement over state constitutions. The principles are broad and will need refining in the years ahead - that could be tricky.
There are also issues with the Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee, which is an important part of the peace process and supposed to resolve conflicts between signatories . For more, read this preview of the conference we published on @FrontierMM. https://www.frontiermyanmar.net/en/what-does-the-panglong-conference-mean-for-the-peace-process/
Panglong will end with several new agreements that will form Part 3 of the Union Peace Accord. But the main argument I made in the @CrisisGroup report is that this should not be seen as a major step forward - it’s about keeping the peace process alive for 2021.
6/ The peace process will now go into hibernation (officially at least). But the transition to a new govt early next year is an opportunity for a reset, even if NLD keeps power. The government needs to take the lead by articulating a clear vision for the peace process.
7/ The @CrisisGroup report has plenty of concrete (and obvious) suggestions on how to improve prospects for progress, ranging from expanding the peace-making team and empowering negotiators to demarcating territory and adhering to the ceasefire.
8/ The easiest change that the govt and military could make is how they talk about history of conflict in Myanmar. They often blame EAOs or insist on equal responsibility bw Bamar and minorities, and refuse to acknowledge legitimate grievances. Exhibit A: https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/military-chief-blames-ethnic-armies-govt-myanmars-protracted-peace-process.html
9/ On a related note, @rshorsey and I will soon be publishing a report for @CrisisGroup on ethnicity and conflict. Stay tuned!
