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We are seeing cases going up in several places in Europe and theories about why hospitalisation sand deaths are not (yet) being seen in the same numbers as in March.
If you have been watching the USA data carefully what you see is a slower burn. We see the rise in cases sooner https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1295811125758418944
If you have been watching the USA data carefully what you see is a slower burn. We see the rise in cases sooner https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1295811125758418944
We see this because we are testing sooner and more widely (good). And we are seeing trends that it is first displaying more strongly in the you DPA than it did in March/ April.
But then, we would. Too many countries were concentrating the testing in not just the symptomatic.
But then, we would. Too many countries were concentrating the testing in not just the symptomatic.
But in the symptomatic that were presenting to hospital.
So the FIRST we see, in the main, is that COVID appears to be prevalent in the old.
Now we are seeing far more prevalence in the young
LHS is cumulative prevalence ENGLAND
RHS is the 2 weeks from end July, 1st week Aug
So the FIRST we see, in the main, is that COVID appears to be prevalent in the old.
Now we are seeing far more prevalence in the young
LHS is cumulative prevalence ENGLAND
RHS is the 2 weeks from end July, 1st week Aug
You will also see a larger proportion of cases in the very young in the last two weeks.
Well.
What if what we saw in the last two weeks was more reflective of what REALLY happened in January but went untested/unmanaged.
No symptoms. SymptomsWritten off Coughs & Colds. Flu’
Well.
What if what we saw in the last two weeks was more reflective of what REALLY happened in January but went untested/unmanaged.
No symptoms. SymptomsWritten off Coughs & Colds. Flu’
So.
IS it (as posited by some) that we are seeing fewer hospitalisation and deaths because we have developed more B and T cell immunity.
Or is it more that we are SEEING the epidemic more clearly because we are testing more and taking earlier action?
And have better treatment
IS it (as posited by some) that we are seeing fewer hospitalisation and deaths because we have developed more B and T cell immunity.
Or is it more that we are SEEING the epidemic more clearly because we are testing more and taking earlier action?
And have better treatment
That is when it is worth going back to Marc Bevand’s thread where he predicted that it was more the slow burn theory than more B and T call immunity.
In reality we may be seeing a bit of both in some areas in England
In reality we may be seeing a bit of both in some areas in England
AND there is plenty of evidence that SOME people are being more cautious.
Footfall in shops, restaurants and transport has increased but is still down overall. Markedly in some areas and still plenty working from home. And schools and Unis are not back.
Footfall in shops, restaurants and transport has increased but is still down overall. Markedly in some areas and still plenty working from home. And schools and Unis are not back.
This is the heat map showing age distribution changes
See how it starts moving up more intensively in the older age group in Florida?
Is that what we are seeing in the U.K.?
See how it starts moving up more intensively in the older age group in Florida?
Is that what we are seeing in the U.K.?
This is how he uses the data to produce those heat maps.
Are any of the techy wizards here in the U.K. working on it?
I know a number of people are building increasingly detailed databases ( @PsyberAttack and @LawrenceGilder amongst others). https://github.com/mbevand/florida-covid19-line-list-data
Are any of the techy wizards here in the U.K. working on it?
I know a number of people are building increasingly detailed databases ( @PsyberAttack and @LawrenceGilder amongst others). https://github.com/mbevand/florida-covid19-line-list-data
We are seeing some early warning signs here - even when there are a school + University holidays and plenty of home working.
Cases & positivity are going up are too.
And contact tracing is in fact proportionately doing down because a smaller proportion are being transferred https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1296516503823556608
Cases & positivity are going up are too.
And contact tracing is in fact proportionately doing down because a smaller proportion are being transferred https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1296516503823556608
681 cases were not transferred because there is some sort of bottle next in the lab processing. But another 1200 for - well - delays.
That is a lot of positives walking around, infecting others with no rapid contact from contact tracers.
That is a lot of positives walking around, infecting others with no rapid contact from contact tracers.
And we still are not really following up those who HAVE been contacted to see whether people are really isolating as thoroughly and for as long as they should.
Including the contacts of contacts.
Including the contacts of contacts.
Enforcement is very weak coming up to likely increasing contacts through school & Unis.
We also need far more complete information about comparative performance between labs and also about the kits used.
And whether the Randox contract has actually been terminated and the full scale of the deployment and performance of kits actually used.
https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1296752862991650816?s=21 https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1296752862991650816
And whether the Randox contract has actually been terminated and the full scale of the deployment and performance of kits actually used.
https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1296752862991650816?s=21 https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1296752862991650816
