Here is an extended French Covid update and number crunch...
The daily figures for new Covid cases in France yesterday were dreadful – 4,771, which is the highest in 24 hours since the height of the crisis on 1 April.
BUT…1/10

Unlike March-April, hospital and intensive care cases in France remain low. Despite the resurgence in the last month, acute cases have fallen. There were 436 people in ICU on 23 July but 380 yesterday. There were 5,957 hospital cases on 23 July and 4,748 yesterday. 2/10

Similarly, the number of deaths has remained mercifully low, despite the boom in Covid cases which started over a month ago. The average mortality since 23 July – ie 4 weeks ago – is 10.6 a day. Total now 30,480. 3/10

This mirrors the pattern seen in other countries. The new summer C19 victims in France are, disproportionately, young and early middle aged. Many have mild symptoms or none at all. 4/10

Some experts, including Prof Didier Raoult, the progenitor of the hydroxychloroquine craze, suggest the virus itself has become less aggressive. I’ve seen nothing official to confirm that thesis. 5/10

President Macron said this week that, come what may, France could not afford another nationwide lockdown. Local or regional lockdowns are possible. Several cities. including Nice and Toulouse, have already ordered mask-wearing in all public places. 6/10

Daily figures can be misleading so I’ve crunched them for the last 4 weeks. The epidemic – mild or not - is gaining ground in France at frightening speed. This is unsurprising. By my own observation, young people – and some others - are ignoring social distancing advice. 7/10

The daily case figures for the last 7 days are scary. Counting backwards, they are 4,771-3,776-2,238- 493-3,015- 3,310 and 2,846. This is a daily average of 2,921.
In the 3 previous weeks, again counting backwards, the daily averages were 1,999- 1294- 1,025. 8/10

The worst affected or high-vigilance départements (counties) in metropolitan (ie European) France are : Bouches-du-Rhône, Hérault, Paris, Sarthe, Seine-Saint-Denis and Val de Marine. 9/10

Moderate vigilance are Alpes-Maritimes, Aube, Essonne, Gard, Gironde, Haute-Garonne, Haute-Savoie, Hautes Pyrénées, Hauts-de Seine, Ille-et-Vilaine, Loiret, Mayenne, Meurthe et Moselle, Nord, Oise, , Rhône, Seine et Marne, Tarn, Val d’Oise, Var, Vaucluse and Yvelines. 10/10