Thread by @duncanmcdonnell, The Northern Territory goes to the polls tomorrow. This will be probably [...]

The Northern Territory goes to the polls tomorrow.

This will be probably be of NO interest to most of those following, but I love NT politics, so here's a few things I'll be looking out for & what I think might happen (for whatever that's worth. I'm no academic Nostradamus):

(1) @MEvansAs & I have been doing an ARC project on Indigenous involvement in Australia's major parties. So, we'll be keeping a close eye on how Indigenous candidates fare.

Despite the rhetoric of both ALP & CLP on this topic, they've only put forward 7 candidates between them.

So, there's a risk the next Assembly could see the lowest number of Indigenous members elected in recent times. It could fall to three and is unlikely to be any higher than the current number of five.

Michelle & I wrote about this last week for the ABC: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-16/the-alp-and-clp-dont-walk-the-talk-on-indigenous-candidates/12550202

The NT goes to the polls next weekend — so where are all the Indigenous candidates?

Political leaders across the country have acknowledged the importance of having more Indigenous candidates. But as the NT election shows, it's easier said than done, writes Michelle Evans and Duncan...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-16/the-alp-and-clp-dont-walk-the-talk-on-indigenous-candidates/12550202

(2) Turnout is another thing I'll be watching. Australia has compulsory voting, but in the NT turnout has long been a problem. Lingiari (the federal seat covering most of NT) had just 73% turnout last year, while in the 2016 NT election in the seat of Arafura, only 49% voted.

(3) Most commentators, and the bookies, think Labor will win. I reckon they will too, probably with 13 seats or so (certainly down from the 18 seats last time).

I also expect the CLP to rise from the 2016 debacle of 2 seats to 6 or 7, setting them up for a proper shot in 2024.

One seat to watch will be Daly, where the bookies have Labor as favourite, but the outgoing (and retiring) member is CLP.

If the CLP doesn't hang on to this, it'll be gutted. I think it will (and have put my money where my mouth is on that, betting on CLP's Ian Sloan).

Another is Mulka, where Labor's Lynne Walker lost to Independent Yingiya Mark Guyula by 8 votes in 2016.

The bookies have Walker (standing again) as favourite, and apparently the ALP has invested a lot in this one. But I think Yingiya will hold on. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-17/nt-election-mulka-guyula-walker-face-heat-as-tight-contest-looms/12562408

'I can't split them': In the NT's tightest electorate, two very different results are in play

It was the battle decided by eight votes in 2016. Now, a heated political race is simmering once again in one of the most remote electorates in the nation where a vast wealth gap plagues the region.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-17/nt-election-mulka-guyula-walker-face-heat-as-tight-contest-looms/12562408

A third one I'll be watching is Barkly. I spent time there last year doing research and met some really good people from ALP & CLP.

Although it was an easy win for retiring ALP member Gerry McCarthy in 2016, the CLP will have high hopes of snatching it. Should be very close.

Whatever happens, it'll be an interesting evening.

And I'm looking forward to getting back next year for our research to the NT, the only place where I've done an interview with someone while a rodeo was going on... https://twitter.com/duncanmcdonnell/status/1162898992859979779

https://twitter.com/duncanmcdonnell/status/1162898992859979779

And, if you've made it to the end of this thread, have a listen to this @thetallyroom podcast I was on earlier today. https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-p9qfy-e80d9d?utm_campaign=w_share_ep&utm_medium=dlink&utm_source=w_share

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