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After many months of political wrangling regarding the 2020/2021 electoral model; reality finally caught up with @M_Farmaajo as he’s now been compelled to accept the model supported by most stakeholders. Today’s agreement is the beginning of a new phase on the electoral process
Throughout the past few months, @M_Farmaajo has been vehemently opposed to the indirect electoral model. Just few weeks ago, he fired his submissive PM for supporting a model he’s now been forced to adopt. Both of these decisions will come with a steep political cost.
@M_Farmaajo’s entire electoral strategy hinged on an extension. He erroneously believed that if he dragged discussions on the elections till the last minute; that would give him space to unveil his 1P1V plan & force an extension. The whole scheme was too clever by half.
The opposition & the FMS showed remarkable coordination in both blunting his political maneuvers & ultimately succeeded in isolating him first from his PM & then from everyone else. In the end, isolated and besieged, he did what was expected and caved dramatically.
Even before he left for Dhuusamreeb, he saw the writings on the wall. His abrupt & incoherent speech to the parliament, in which he proclaimed parliament will have the last say on any deal, was meant to take the sting out of whatever bitter pill that awaited him in Galmudug.
Today’s developments emphatically show that Farmaajo is down — but not out. The ambiguous and strange wording on today’s statement gives him abundant room to temper with the elections & influence its outcome.
For example, the votes from “Somaliland” will be critical in how the election plays out. @M_Farmaajo’s electoral strategy now revolves around ensuring that he gets the maximum votes possible from the Somaliland votes which will be held in Mogadishu under his supervision.
As I explained on a thread few months ago, the accommodation for the “Somaliland” delegates and those of regions deemed unsafe were already prepared. https://www.somaliaffairs.com/news/somali-political-commentator-says-plot-to-rig-2020-2021-election-underway/
@M_Farmaajo’s strategy now centers around votes from “Somaliland,” minority groups, and other seats that will inevitably be shifted to Mogadishu for variety of reasons. This is where the fight will now shift to & where opposition and stakeholders need to focus on.
The secondary strategy of @M_Farmaajo & his puppetmaster and current @HSNQ_NISA DG is to ensure that opposition leaders such as ex Presidents Sharif/HSM & Abdirehman Abdishakur don’t win.
There’s a real worry among @M_Farmaajo’s camp that in case any of those individuals prevail, that there will be accountability regarding the extrajudicial actions of the gov’t. For example, the deadly raid on Abdirehman’s residence, Baidoba massacres, BRA bombing, etc
Finally, opposition must campaign for a phased election rather than a single event as presented in today’s statement. A single day election will open opportunities for manipulation and will set the stage for a contested outcome.
Today’s deal was the first strong indication that the dark & insidious cloud that’s been cast on Somalia on Feb’17 is finally retreating; but for that to happen stakeholders have to fight even harder. The war for democracy & rule of law is yet to be won!
