[Thread] The future of the US military presence in Iraq wasn’t up for discussion with PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s visit to Washington – because the US wasn’t planning to withdraw or place a timetable on its ongoing presence.

Given how the Strategic Dialogue initiative emerged, it was likely offered by US officials to manage anti-American pressure intensifying in Iraq after the US assassinated Iranian Gen Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in a drone strike in Baghdad.

Back then, it also gave a way out to PM Abd al-Mahdi, who was caught between intense domestic pressure to terminate the US presence – and in case of expelling American forces, faced serious risk of crippling economic sanctions by the Trump administration. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-warns-iraq-it-risks-losing-access-to-key-bank-account-if-troops-told-to-leave-11578759629

Over time, the purpose of the Dialogue evolved (and expanded) to encompass the full spectrum of the bilateral relationship – because it was being utilized as a bargaining chip for the US to influence Iraqi politics.

With Iraq facing its most severe economic crisis in a generation due to the collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic, US officials told Iraqi elites that if the next prime minister were not to their liking, the Dialogue would be canceled – along with its benefits.

By the time the Dialogue had its first session in June, US officials were unprepared to offer Kadhimi anything substantial and were worried the talks had become over-hyped, with expectations veering towards a comprehensive reset of the relationship.

This is because the Dialogue was never designed or motivated to deepen bilateral ties – but rather initially as a reaction to manage the fallout of the drone strike and later employed as a coercive tool to shape the selection of the next prime minister.

While some have overstated the significance of this visit – and it has some positive scores for Kadhimi in the short term – it would be wrong to believe it impacts the trajectory of the US-Iraq relationship in any meaningful way.