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Colombian President @IvanDuque, citing "foreign intelligence agencies", claimed today that his Venezuelan opposite number @NicolasMaduro had an "interest" in acquiring medium and long-range missiles via its ally #Iran. THREAD https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/08/20/world/americas/20reuters-colombia-venezuela.html
The claim adds a fresh, and dangerous, twist not only to the already extremely strained relations between two neighbours who have no diplomatic relations, but to the conflict between Washington and Caracas. https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/andes/venezuela/misguided-bid-topple-maduro-virus-looms
Duque’s statement coincides with the visit to Colombia of US National Security Advisor Robert C. O’Brien, who made a joint announcement with the president of an investment initiative of up to $5 billion in private funds for rural areas in #Colombia https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/08/17/business/17reuters-colombia-usa.html
It’s hard to believe Maduro would be so foolish, especially just ahead of a bitter US election campaign in which #Venezuela is a factor in the battle for the swing state of #Florida, as to bait the Trump administration so flagrantly.
On the other hand, it perfectly fits the narrative of hardliners in Washington, Bogotá and Venezuelan opposition that the Maduro government is a threat to hemispheric security which must be eliminated, an argument already used to invoke a mutual defence treaty in the Americas
Duque's other claim - that the Venezuelan armed forces are supplying "Russian and Belarusian" weapons to irregular forces operating on the Colombo-Venezuelan border - is less controversial.
Indeed, as the Colombian president acknowledged, weapons trading of this kind has been going on for many years. And since the standard assault rifle of the Venezuelan armed forces is a Kalashnikov, it is not surprising that some of the arms would be Russian.
Parts of the Venezuelan army sell weapons to the highest bidder. This is not necessarily a government strategy. Arms have also ended up in the hands of armed groups and criminal networks in the Caribbean, Brazil and Guyana. https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/andes/venezuela/78-glut-arms-curbing-threat-venezuela-violent-groups
Venezuelan opposition & President Duque argue that the Maduro gvmt and non-state actors in #Venezuela pose terrorist threat. Claiming that this might extend to the region is calculated to provoke international reactions, in pursuit of ousting Maduro. https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/andes/colombiavenezuela/b040-containing-border-fallout-colombias-new-guerrilla-schism
As the Trump administration seeks fresh ways, ahead of the November election, to turn up the pressure still more on Maduro, the concern is that it might be tempted into something more bellicose. https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/us-eyes-october-deadline-to-end-exemptions-on-venezuela-oil-sanctions-sources/77645737
The new accusations also come as the US is expected to push for a "snapback" of multilateral sanctions on #Iran at the #UN. The US argues that Iran is out of compliance, despite Washington's unilateral exit from the deal last year. https://twitter.com/CrisisGroup/status/1296517355019710464?s=20
With restoration of UN sanctions likely to be contested in coming weeks, the US may be trying to ring the alarm bell over the arms transfer issue & perhaps prime some gvmts. to announce 30 days from now they will consider the Chapter VII resolutions against Iran back
in place.
in place.
Bilateral sabre-rattling does no good for residents along the 2,200km Colombian-Venezuelan border, where co-operation over pandemic control, containing armed groups & handling flows of desperate migrants is both more important and now more improbable. https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/andes/colombia/b24-broken-ties-frozen-borders-colombia-and-venezuela-face-covid-19
