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http://Euromomo.eu has been updated through Week 33 with no change: excess mortality ended in Europe before the end of May. It has been more than two months since the Covid pandemic ended, but the hysteria continues:
Maybe the governments of Europe are worried about a second wave if they fully open up? Well, it seems that a new wave of cases has started to arrive, with growing cases for the last six weeks - but, there has been no resultant uptick in deaths (or excess mortality).
In the Spring, deaths followed detected cases with just over a one week lag. That correlation has entirely disappeared since mid-May, correspondent with the end of excess all-cause mortality in Europe.
Effectively, the case fatality rate in Europe has dropped steadily from a peak in late Spring all the way to essentially zero today:
What could explain the dramatic decline in lethality from Covid? Viral mutation, lower viral loads during Summer, higher vitamin D in Summer, better treatment options, susceptible population already impacted?
The answer to this question will help answer the more important question: can we expect lethality to return this Winter? But, not matter which way we answer that question, the policy implication remains unchanged: we should immediately open society without restrictions.
If lethality does return - we will want as many people as possible to get infected now, when the infection is mild and hospitals are empty. If it does not return, then we are just prolonging the unneeded impositions upon our freedom.
