Background: Downing Street has briefed it’s going to tear up “inflexible and rigid” EU rules and make new return deals with neighbouring countries 'when we are completely free from Brussels'. One hitch. Nearly all those neighbouring countries are in the EU.
EU diplomats say Michel Barnier has no mandate to negotiate an EU-wide returns agreement with the UK. And they don’t seem in the mood to change the mandate.

The UK text has been described in Brussels as “very unbalanced” and “not good enough”.
Nothing in EU law to prevent bilateral deals between EU countries and UK. But EU officials don’t think politically likely - a view shared by ex @EP_Justice chair @Claude_Moraes - “it’s a non-runner”.

Big exception - France and possibly other near neighbours, such as Belgium.
UK gov has said its working “at pace” on a new plan with France to deter channel crossings by asylum seekers. But details scant. France’s interior ministry did not respond to questions on the talks with UK and French objectives for any EU agreement.
Southern European countries, who receive most migrant and refugee arrivals, unhappy with any attempt to recreate Dublin. They say premature to be discussing returns with UK before sorting out the EU’s own asylum reform.
While UK has been quietly trying to secure a post-Brexit Dublin-style deal, very few asylum seekers are returned this way.

Three-year ave for 2017-2019 was only 262 people, while UK took in 797 from EU. Fewer than 6% of UK Dublin transfer requests happen.
But other big member states are taking in far more people under Dublin, so not a lot of sympathy for British complaints.
In 2018: Germany took in 7,580 people, Italy 6,351 and France 1,837. Non EU Switzerland took in 1,292, slightly more than the UK in the same year (1,215).
And while more people are risking the channel crossing (more than 4,100 this year alone), nearly ten times as many have crossed the Mediterranean to reach Greece, Italy, Spain, Malta and Cyprus. Mediterranean crossings are well down on previous years.
While EU member states are reluctant to allow what they deem to be UK “cherry-picking” no one wants to see more people crossing the continent in an attempt to reach Britain.
Prediction: an EU-UK asylum deal could emerge a few years down the line, once both sides start on the post post-Brexit deals.

Negotiating with the EU will not be over on 31 December 2020.
You can follow @JenniferMerode.
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