THREAD: Will #THFC start Lucas Moura over Steven Bergwijn this season?

This thread will focus on two key factors that could give Lucas the nod over Bergwijn.
(2/8) Ever noticed that whenever Lloris lumps a long ball, it’s to the right wing?

That’s because of Lucas‘ aerial win %. He wins 40.7% of his duels (59th percentile if compared to forwards in Europe’s top 5 leagues), compared to Bergwijn’s 31.3% (27th percentile) (FBRef).
(3/8) Bergwijn‘s a much better creator, but Lucas is a better presser. 5.35 successful pressures per 90 (65th percentile) compared to Bergwijn’s 4.02 (24th percentile).

That comes in handy if he loses an aerial duel or #THFC lose the ball.
(4/8) I‘ll also note that Gio Lo Celso has averaged 6.12 successful pressures per 90 since the start of 18/19 (83rd percentile among top-5-lg AMs/wingers) & has the third highest successful pressures percentage among PL AMs/FWs this season.

But what do all these numbers matter?
(5/8) When #THFC play a pressing team or the opponent is chasing the game, we can invite pressure (Højbjerg/Ndombele both are creative threats) send a long ball to Lucas (#11 below), GLC wins the second ball (as he did often during the restart), & man, the possibilities...
(6/8) If GLC wins the second ball...
- Drive @ the CB, draw a CM tracking back, pass to Ndombele who’s in a 1v1 & can create
- Pass to Kane, lay-off for Ndombele, who finds the RB bombing forward
- Pass to Kane, lay-off for Ndombele, finds Son for a run in behind or in 1v1
(7/8) Lose the ball? Play Lucas & GLC, & you’ve got building blocks for an elite counterpressing unit.

One major issue with starting Lucas over Bergwijn: No wide creativity. That hinders our ability to break down low blocks & increases our chance of getting stuck in possession.
(8/8) if Harry Kane weren’t below average in aerial duels, there’d be little reason to start Lucas & none if Bergwijn were better on the defensive end.

But Lucas exploits as a counterpress expert & Wide Target Man of sorts make sure Bergwijn starting over him isn’t a formality.
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