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THREAD/ No denying the U.S. hoped #AfghanistanPeaceProcess would begin in few short weeks; it has stretched out for six months.
Afghan govt officials raised a number of issues, from 29 Feb until today. Hard to see a sense of urgency.
But- what alternatives? A defense of Kabul: https://twitter.com/FrudBezhan/status/1296362350317047809
Afghan govt officials raised a number of issues, from 29 Feb until today. Hard to see a sense of urgency.
But- what alternatives? A defense of Kabul: https://twitter.com/FrudBezhan/status/1296362350317047809
2/ US excluded Kabul from talks w/ Taliban, & agreed to generous terms. Raised dire concerns, Afghan officials said so openly.
Doha deal may not be automatic US betrayal of Afghan partners, but... seems to allow option for it. How would any nation react?? https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/trumps-taliban-deal-confirms-his-foreign-policy-doctrine-is-betrayal
Doha deal may not be automatic US betrayal of Afghan partners, but... seems to allow option for it. How would any nation react?? https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/trumps-taliban-deal-confirms-his-foreign-policy-doctrine-is-betrayal
3/ To be clear: Kabul has done nothing to openly oppose 29 Feb agreement, nor US-led peace efforts broadly.
...IN SPITE OF American actions to advance a process that would almost certainly lead to changes in staff+structure or even essential nature of Afghan state.
...IN SPITE OF American actions to advance a process that would almost certainly lead to changes in staff+structure or even essential nature of Afghan state.
4/ Current US Afg policy essentially asks Kabul to engage in talks that may lead to its voluntary dissolution.
Here are real concerns. All thru 2019, number of Afgh political figures repeatedly called for interim govt... a volatile, dangerous proposal. https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/afghanistan-needs-a-caretaker-government-26166
Here are real concerns. All thru 2019, number of Afgh political figures repeatedly called for interim govt... a volatile, dangerous proposal. https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/afghanistan-needs-a-caretaker-government-26166
5/ Hasty interim govt could lead to state fracture & even worse conditions for Afghans, if not outright civil war.
Ghani's objection to such calls are sound.
...and Kabul has plenty of reason to worry that US/Khalilzad may see interim govt as acceptable. https://www.rferl.org/a/interview-u-s-envoy-backs-afghan-presidential-election-if-no-peace-deal/30087370.html
Ghani's objection to such calls are sound.
...and Kabul has plenty of reason to worry that US/Khalilzad may see interim govt as acceptable. https://www.rferl.org/a/interview-u-s-envoy-backs-afghan-presidential-election-if-no-peace-deal/30087370.html
6/ These domestic concerns are real. There are concerns about talks with Taliban, too.
BATNA is key to any negotiating strategy: an actor's best alternative, if talks don't work or you don't like the offer.
If US is prepared to walk away, completely, what is Kabul's BATNA?
BATNA is key to any negotiating strategy: an actor's best alternative, if talks don't work or you don't like the offer.
If US is prepared to walk away, completely, what is Kabul's BATNA?
7/ So:
Does Kabul hope for total policy reversal under Biden? Is Kabul a spoiler to the peace process??
No!
But is the Afghan govt moving slowly through each step of a painful, dangerous process? Raising diff issues, at times making contradictory remarks on peace?
Yes.
Why?
Does Kabul hope for total policy reversal under Biden? Is Kabul a spoiler to the peace process??
No!
But is the Afghan govt moving slowly through each step of a painful, dangerous process? Raising diff issues, at times making contradictory remarks on peace?
Yes.
Why?
8/ Before even seeing a deal at intra-Afghan talks, Kabul knows it probably won't like the offer.
US has sent plenty of signals: it will accept far more compromise than Kabul -and many Afghans!- believe they should.
So, what is Kabul's best alternative? http://www.1tvnews.af/en/news/afghanistan/42898
US has sent plenty of signals: it will accept far more compromise than Kabul -and many Afghans!- believe they should.
So, what is Kabul's best alternative? http://www.1tvnews.af/en/news/afghanistan/42898
9/ Many in Kabul & Washington describe ongoing efforts to lobby US national security circles: mid-level and senior figures in military, diplomacy, intel & policy, figures with strong ties & sympathies to Afghan partners.
Kabul is buying time, but not to stall or ruin talks...
Kabul is buying time, but not to stall or ruin talks...
10/ ...but to strengthen its position.
Afghan govt wants US to reject option of abandonment. It seeks reassurances of support.
When its reps sit across table from Taliban, it wants them to speak with the strength that comes from being able to walk away. https://apnews.com/bd265a57d206edaf5c4fd7de775d7b6d
Afghan govt wants US to reject option of abandonment. It seeks reassurances of support.
When its reps sit across table from Taliban, it wants them to speak with the strength that comes from being able to walk away. https://apnews.com/bd265a57d206edaf5c4fd7de775d7b6d
11/ Kabul's desire to rally support from allies in DC, to be able to enter talks alongside its superpower ally, is perfectly logical.
To those who warn patience is running out, Kabul might reply: if US is headed toward withdrawal, what is there to lose? Why not plead the case?
To those who warn patience is running out, Kabul might reply: if US is headed toward withdrawal, what is there to lose? Why not plead the case?
12/ Weak point of US-led peace efforts: it didn't win the war. Talks with undefeated opponent must include heavy compromise.
*US never found a way to sell this to Kabul.*
Up to today, Americans haven't offered Afgh govt much, except to threaten what peace talks already hint at.
*US never found a way to sell this to Kabul.*
Up to today, Americans haven't offered Afgh govt much, except to threaten what peace talks already hint at.
13/ Due to intensity of US pressure, Kabul has little choice but to go along.
But why not appeal, & go slow?
Given risks to Afghans even if talks "succeed", very real potential for talks to fall apart, & dangers of too fast a transition... govt may see little alternative.
/END
But why not appeal, & go slow?
Given risks to Afghans even if talks "succeed", very real potential for talks to fall apart, & dangers of too fast a transition... govt may see little alternative.
/END
