BREAKING: School reopenings are linked to union influence and politics, not safety.

School districts in states that required union membership are 25 percentage points less likely to reopen schools in-person this fall.

38% of school districts in Right to Work states are planning to reopen in-person

Only 13% of school districts in unionized states are planning to do the same.

School districts in states with stronger teachers unions are also significantly less likely to reopen in-person this fall

73% of school districts in Florida are planning to reopen in-person

Only 4% are planning to do so in California, a state with much stronger teachers unions.

But school district reopenings are not statistically related to Covid-19 cases or deaths per capita.

This finding was also highlighted by Jon Valant at Brookings Institution: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2020/07/29/school-reopening-plans-linked-to-politics-rather-than-public-health/

The reopening decisions are statistically related to politics.

As Jon Valant found, the higher percentage of Trump voters in the area, the higher the likelihood of school districts reopening in-person this fall.

Here are the results from the analysis

School districts in unionized states are substantially less likely to reopen in-person.

Cases and deaths per capita aren't statistically related to reopening.

Here are the results for teachers union strength

School districts in states with stronger teachers unions are significantly less likely to reopen in-person.

Again, no relationship between Covid-19 cases and deaths per capita and school district reopening decisions.

Here's my latest article highlighting these new findings at @Reason

"School Reopenings Linked to Union Influence and Politics, Not Safety" https://reason.com/2020/08/19/school-reopenings-linked-to-union-influence-and-politics-not-safety/