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This interesting article by @IanJStorey has gotten attention lately, mainly for the idea that perhaps China's SCS islands are so shoddily built that the PLAAF is unable/unwilling to use their runways to operate fighters.
I'm skeptical that's the case. https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/why-doesnt-china-deploy-fighter-jets-to-the-spratly-islands/
I'm skeptical that's the case. https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/why-doesnt-china-deploy-fighter-jets-to-the-spratly-islands/
To be clear, the article tees up 3 possibilities for why the PRC appears not to have deployed fighters:
- political restraint
- maintenance issues due to salt spray
- possible problems with the runways' construction and current condition which make the PLAAF wary of using them
- political restraint
- maintenance issues due to salt spray
- possible problems with the runways' construction and current condition which make the PLAAF wary of using them
The article (correctly IMO) essentially dismisses the 2nd argument. China seems quite willing to operate Flankers on their own aircraft carriers, and I can tell you that I've seen with my own eyeballs F-22s parked <100 yds from the beach in Hawaii, in open shelters with no A/C.
The 3rd possibility has received the most attention but seems the least likely IMO. While the article acknowledges the PLAAF has operated bigger/heavier commercial & turboprop aircraft on the islands... http://hanoitimes.vn/chinese-maritime-patrol-aircraft-spotted-on-vietnamese-islands-312090.html
...it then states that "for fast combat jets the integrity of the runway surface needs to be much higher."
Now, I'm not a jet pilot - I only have a single engine commercial license and fly little bug-smashers for fun. But I just don't see much evidence that's the case here.
Now, I'm not a jet pilot - I only have a single engine commercial license and fly little bug-smashers for fun. But I just don't see much evidence that's the case here.
First, when it comes to landing, Flankers don't seem to really be that "fast". From what I could find, while it looks like Flankers land a bit faster than turboprop Y-8s (240 vs 170 km/hr)... https://www.milavia.net/aircraft/su-27/su-27_specifications.htm
...they actually have a lower landing speed than the airliners that've been seen landing on the islands before (~260+ km/hr for a 737). https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-35249092
Also, it bears considering that Russian aircraft are legendary for their ability to operate from rough runways, and that one of the key design requirements for the original Flanker was that it be able to operate from short and/or "austere" ones. https://www.popularmechanics.com/flight/a18021/su-27-landing-no-landing-gear-video/
They are even apparently equipped with debris deflectors, which are also found on Chinese versions.
http://maybach300c.blogspot.com/2012/11/su-27-flanker.html
http://maybach300c.blogspot.com/2012/11/su-27-flanker.html
They've been seen operating from highways, as part of various air forces' dispersal exercises. Here you can see Indian Su-30MKIs operating from an Indian expressway.
It bears considering also that Flankers appear to have a takeoff and landing rolls of <1000m, and that since the runways on those islands are around 3000m they may not need the entire length to be sound in order to operate. https://www.milavia.net/aircraft/su-27/su-27_specifications.htm
To be clear, this is a good article which addresses a truly interesting question - why *haven't* they sent fighters out there already after several years?
After all, *each* of those islands has 24 fighter-size hangars, each of which appears to have multiple A/C units.
After all, *each* of those islands has 24 fighter-size hangars, each of which appears to have multiple A/C units.
What worries me is how I've seen people latching onto the idea that China hasn't done so because the PRC builds things poorly or is incompetent.
It concerns me particularly because it rhymes with what I've heard other people say on other topics, like:
It concerns me particularly because it rhymes with what I've heard other people say on other topics, like:
"Sure, they're building a huge navy, but do they know how hard it will be to maintain and crew them?"
(Maintenance/manning requirements are some of the most basic elements of a new program. Why would we assume the PLA wouldn't have considered them?)
(Maintenance/manning requirements are some of the most basic elements of a new program. Why would we assume the PLA wouldn't have considered them?)
"Our training is better and their exercises are somewhat scripted and unrealistic."
(This makes me wonder if the person saying it has ever taken part in one of ours...)
etc.
(This makes me wonder if the person saying it has ever taken part in one of ours...)
etc.
For sure, the PLA is not ten feet tall; but I hear way too much whistling past the graveyard & engaging in wish-thinking about the huge growth in its capabilities.
In the absence of firm evidence to the contrary, we should avoid doing so.
Fin.
In the absence of firm evidence to the contrary, we should avoid doing so.
Fin.
