Today’s YouGov voting intention has Labour within 2 points of the Tories.

It’s not been that close since Theresa May was prime minister - the last YouGov 2 point Tory lead was 24/6/2019

BUT

This isn’t Tory voters migrating to Labour

1/

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This is key: it shows where Lab votes are coming from, compared to how they voted 8 months ago in the 2019 general election

Keir Starmer is benefiting from ...the ongoing further collapse of the Liberal Democrats

Just 6% of those who voted Tory last Dec switching to Lab

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Meanwhile what’s happened to people who voted Tory in the 2019 election?

Even after this week, 86% of them would vote Tory again, a similar retention rate to Labour

6% would now vote Labour as above

*But also*

6% would now vote Brexit Party

(Wd BXP even stand again?)

4/

Also look how robust the Tory vote is amongst the over 65s - a 24 point lead over Labour. That could be incredibly difficult for Keir Starmer to shift.

5/

Meanwhile the Tories have done better holding together the 2016 Leave vote than Labour has been holding 2016 Remain vote

A 2016 remain voter still splits between LD, SNP Green. Brexiteers mainly go Tory or Brexit party.

6/

So Keir Starmer has reunited the left, to some extent - will a new Lib Dem leader make a difference to that - but hasn’t really made particularly big inroads into Tory vote.

Tories are losing similar % of votes to a party which may not even stand next time..