Read on Twitter
Today’s YouGov voting intention has Labour within 2 points of the Tories.
It’s not been that close since Theresa May was prime minister - the last YouGov 2 point Tory lead was 24/6/2019
BUT
This isn’t Tory voters migrating to Labour
1/
It’s not been that close since Theresa May was prime minister - the last YouGov 2 point Tory lead was 24/6/2019
BUT
This isn’t Tory voters migrating to Labour
1/
2/
This is key: it shows where Lab votes are coming from, compared to how they voted 8 months ago in the 2019 general election
Keir Starmer is benefiting from ...the ongoing further collapse of the Liberal Democrats
Just 6% of those who voted Tory last Dec switching to Lab
This is key: it shows where Lab votes are coming from, compared to how they voted 8 months ago in the 2019 general election
Keir Starmer is benefiting from ...the ongoing further collapse of the Liberal Democrats
Just 6% of those who voted Tory last Dec switching to Lab
3/
Meanwhile what’s happened to people who voted Tory in the 2019 election?
Even after this week, 86% of them would vote Tory again, a similar retention rate to Labour
6% would now vote Labour as above
*But also*
6% would now vote Brexit Party
(Wd BXP even stand again?)
Meanwhile what’s happened to people who voted Tory in the 2019 election?
Even after this week, 86% of them would vote Tory again, a similar retention rate to Labour
6% would now vote Labour as above
*But also*
6% would now vote Brexit Party
(Wd BXP even stand again?)
4/
Also look how robust the Tory vote is amongst the over 65s - a 24 point lead over Labour. That could be incredibly difficult for Keir Starmer to shift.
Also look how robust the Tory vote is amongst the over 65s - a 24 point lead over Labour. That could be incredibly difficult for Keir Starmer to shift.
5/
Meanwhile the Tories have done better holding together the 2016 Leave vote than Labour has been holding 2016 Remain vote
A 2016 remain voter still splits between LD, SNP Green. Brexiteers mainly go Tory or Brexit party.
Meanwhile the Tories have done better holding together the 2016 Leave vote than Labour has been holding 2016 Remain vote
A 2016 remain voter still splits between LD, SNP Green. Brexiteers mainly go Tory or Brexit party.
6/
So Keir Starmer has reunited the left, to some extent - will a new Lib Dem leader make a difference to that - but hasn’t really made particularly big inroads into Tory vote.
Tories are losing similar % of votes to a party which may not even stand next time..
So Keir Starmer has reunited the left, to some extent - will a new Lib Dem leader make a difference to that - but hasn’t really made particularly big inroads into Tory vote.
Tories are losing similar % of votes to a party which may not even stand next time..
