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Okay let's talk COVID19 stats.
What I've been thinking about this morning is how macro-social factors influence responses to the pandemic.
What I've been thinking about this morning is how macro-social factors influence responses to the pandemic.
First example: Sweden.
Here's the deaths per million comparison for various countries.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/
Here's the deaths per million comparison for various countries.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/
Now, bearing in mind that Sweden DIDN'T lock down at all, why is it that it's gotten away with a rate of deaths-per-million that's lower than the UK, which DID lock down?
It's due to Swedish culture. Check out this article from 2016. https://blogs.studyinsweden.se/2016/01/29/swedish-personal-space-bubble/
It's due to Swedish culture. Check out this article from 2016. https://blogs.studyinsweden.se/2016/01/29/swedish-personal-space-bubble/
Sweden has social distancing "built-in" as a cultural value. So the strategy they took worked for them. Would the same have worked in the UK? Absolutely not, and Boris Johnson's half-assed initial approach proves that much.
Now consider various Asian countries.
Now consider various Asian countries.
South Korea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_South_Korea
One super-spreader event and they got hit like a train, but their response was stellar and they got it under control quickly.
South Koreans got off the streets without even going into lockdown.
One super-spreader event and they got hit like a train, but their response was stellar and they got it under control quickly.
South Koreans got off the streets without even going into lockdown.
'On 20 February, the streets of Daegu were empty in reaction to the Shincheonji outbreak. A resident described the reaction, stating "It's like someone dropped a bomb in the middle of the city. It looks like a zombie apocalypse."'
Again, it's the culture.
Again, it's the culture.
Asian cultures don't do social distancing (not that I'm aware of anyway) but they normalize mask-wearing and they have institutional knowledge from the SARS outbreak.
Okay now let's look at New Zealand.
Okay now let's look at New Zealand.
Their response was broadly similar to that in Canada overall. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_Zealand
Plus they got off lucky being an island and being able to quarantine anyone coming in.
Plus they got off lucky being an island and being able to quarantine anyone coming in.
They locked down hard and early, threw a ton of money at maintaining their economy, and the government was very much on top of it and communicated well.
They got buy-in from their society as a result and got through it okay.
They got buy-in from their society as a result and got through it okay.
The parallels between New Zealand and BC are amazing btw.
BC has one major advantage and one major disadvantage cancelling each other out:
+ huge Asian population that started a cultural pandemic response in JANUARY, I kid you not
- close to the US border
BC has one major advantage and one major disadvantage cancelling each other out:
+ huge Asian population that started a cultural pandemic response in JANUARY, I kid you not
- close to the US border
But Canada in general got early buy-in from Canadians. Daily briefings and news reports at the federal and provincial level. Institutional expertise coming from the SARS outbreak in Toronto. Plus throwing a fuck ton of money at keeping the economy afloat in some way.
And this isn't to say that we got it 100% correct, because the economic effects of this are still going to screw us. But it could have been so much worse.
So this is a long-winded way of saying that a pandemic is best handled by a society that is willing and able to act collectively in some way, because the pandemic is a mass event that damages a huge cross-section of society.
The countries that are going to get hit the hardest by this are those that cannot or will not act collectively, whether it's because they're not stable enough/don't have the money, or because their culture is antagonistic to the idea at all.
Yes, I'm looking at you, America.
Yes, I'm looking at you, America.
There is a seanfhocal, an old saying, in Irish: Ní neart go cur le chéile.
There is no strength without unity. (There's an Irish context to it but that's not important right now.)
The US can call itself united, but it truly isn't, and I think the pandemic makes this clear.
There is no strength without unity. (There's an Irish context to it but that's not important right now.)
The US can call itself united, but it truly isn't, and I think the pandemic makes this clear.
It's been hamstrung for decades by rampant individualism and now those chickens are really coming home to roost, because you can't fight COVID19 alone.
I suspect that a lot of MAGAts are so resistant to any collective action simply because the bedrock of their identity is this rugged individualism. They are strong because they can handle anything alone, they don't need help. Needing help = weakness.
Needing help is to be scorned, or cognitive-dissonanced into being not-help, or perhaps their justly deserved rewards.
But COVID19 is another beast entirely. It's like a major natural disaster rolling across a country. You CANNOT fight it on an individual level.
But COVID19 is another beast entirely. It's like a major natural disaster rolling across a country. You CANNOT fight it on an individual level.
TBH the US might still have gotten through it alright if the Democrats had been in charge, because at least they would have tried to pull a collective response together.
But no, you have the worst version of the GOP in power. The party defined by "fuck you got mine".
But no, you have the worst version of the GOP in power. The party defined by "fuck you got mine".
So - no collective response, and even the state-by-state response was sabotaged by the feds and by the individualistic cultural values of Trump supporters.
I would like to make a bold prediction here: big chunks of the US are well on the way to being VERY screwed.
I would like to make a bold prediction here: big chunks of the US are well on the way to being VERY screwed.
Blue states will probably pull through eventually even if they take a beating. Dems have some buy-in.
States that proportionally have a lot of Trump supporters: COVID19 will reveal they have the most cases per capita, the most deaths, the most economic damage.
States that proportionally have a lot of Trump supporters: COVID19 will reveal they have the most cases per capita, the most deaths, the most economic damage.
Mark my words. The correlation will be frightening to see once we run the data a couple of years from now.
Stay safe, my friends. Stay unified as much as you can.
Stay safe, my friends. Stay unified as much as you can.
