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A thread on American democracy and elections. The primary win of Laura Loomer is an excellent case to illustrate some structural problems. FL-21 was redrawn as a safe/solid D district after the 2010 census. The D incumbent won by a 27% margin in 2016 and won unopposed in 2018 1/
In 2016, 335K votes were cast in a non-competitive race for the FL-21 seat. FL just had their primary and it appears about 15K people just catapulted Loomer, “a firebrand” into the national media. Loomer got a plurality, not a majority of votes. 10K votes would be enough. 2/
Because of the makeup of the district, there are some bad incentives at play. Because a majority is not required, having a run-off, used in a just about every other democracy in the world, a small highly engaged group can have disproportionate impact. 3/
Combine the two factors, and the best ideas don’t win, as they should. The most extreme ideas win, deepening polarization. Two many people are left unrepresented. I’m certain most Republicans in FL-21 do not want Loomer to be their choice come Nov but she’s now all they have. 4/
In 2016, 118K people in FL-21 supported the Republican candidate, but it took <10% of folks in this group to advance Loomer to the same ticket in 2020. Is she really the desired choice for these 118K voters? If the answer is yes, than the system works, if not, fix it. 5/
Lastly, on the other side, since the seat is non-competitive, and the incumbent will likely win by a margin of 30%, what incentive does the Democrat incumbent have to appeal to the under represented Republicans? I can understand the frustration of that 35% of ignored voters 6/
It’s is that frustration and apathy that opens the possibility of someone like Loomer to enter the political sphere and we should ask ourselves, is that really how we want our democracy to function? END
PS. Yes, more mail-in ballots will be counted so vote totals are estimates but point will still stand.
PSS. The media loves this stuff since it drives ratings and clicks, so they will amplify the outcome.
PSS. The media loves this stuff since it drives ratings and clicks, so they will amplify the outcome.
