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All due respect to Katya’s always brilliant coverage, but the idea that the UK hasn’t fixed regional inequality because of EU spending limits is nuts. We are one of the most unequal nations in the EU. If the rest of them can build fair societies we can. /1 https://twitter.com/bbckatyaadler/status/1296048869399199744
Add to that the fact that huge amounts of money have gone to poorer UK regions for years not from Westminster but from the EU. While our Govt ignored the problem Brussels were all over it. That funding has now been lost - and not replaced by Johnson. /2
Shouting ‘levelling up’ doesn’t create a regional development or redistribution strategy any more than repeating take back control gives you any more control. So far all Johnson’s given us is failure and chaos. /3
This is esp true of Brexit - where he ditched the oven ready deal of yore in early Feb, hence the stagnant negotiations. It’s also true of Covid19, exams (and education generally since March) and the economy (they’ve done next to nothing since Sunak’s busy week in March). /4
The EU position has been clear since 2015 - 5 years!! - that single market benefits are reserved for single market members, and preferential access outside the market comes only with commitments on standards, rights and state aid. /5
Yet Johnson and his negotiators continue to complain about the very clear rules as if this will change them. Either Johnson caves in on LPF inc state aid or he doesn’t. That’s really all we need to watch for between now and end Oct. /6
Sadly for anyone concerned about jobs, business or the economy he’ll make his decision purely on politics - will he be harmed politically more by getting no deal, or by caving in and having Farage / ERG cry foul, vassal state, half Brexit etc. /7
Of note is the recent FT report that Cummings is committed to state aid freedom (= no deal) and Best for Britain polling showing 90% of Red Wall voters, inc Lab-Tory switchers, think getting a deal is important. /8
Also noteworthy will be Tory concern that if they compromise with the EU it could give Farage (or a successor) life for a ‘real Brexit’ party. Even if they only got 5% in 2021/2024 that’s a lot of Tory seats gone. /9
Rumour (and it is rumour, so treat with caution) has it that senior Tories want No Deal for the comms and then to start the real negotiations in Jan 2021 when everyone has moved on. Chances of EU agreeing to start all over again are minimal imo. /10
The smart money seems to b le on a thin deal by end October but that would need Johnson to cave in on state aid and LPF. Fish can be fixed. But that will depend on Johnson believing he’s found a way to market defeat as victory. Hard to see how right now. /end
