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Last night I asked “How long before the GOP is a broadly multiethnic, multiracial party?” There were lots of interesting responses and I wanted to summarize some of them in a thread. https://twitter.com/owasow/status/1295900514719109121
First, the most common response was some version of “never” or “hahaha.” This ignores that if Trump loses in 2020, the GOP “would have then lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections.” Not the trend of a growing majority party. https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-08-18/republican-party-history-donald-trump-elections
Second, @rp_griffin pointed out that even if little changes, the GOP was likely to become somewhat more multiracial simply as a function of changing US demographics. The projections strike me as cautious, though. https://twitter.com/rp_griffin/status/1295905919587557379
Currents estimates project in ~25 years US will be approximately 50% White non-Hispanic. Appeals to White, Christian nationalism will likely work regionally but hard to imagine a winning national party with that strategy in 2044. https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2015/09/28/appendix-c-population-tables-1965-2065/
Third, a number of thoughtful responses considered what a right-of-center, multiracial party might look like. In one scenario, the party is culturally conservative but rejects white supremacy. https://twitter.com/drkahaynes/status/1296115482173440000
Another plausible scenario from @nikhil_palsingh would involve a coalition built on “moral conservatism” but that also incorporated “consciously multiracial nativism.” https://twitter.com/nikhil_palsingh/status/1295916185792520194
Drawing on cross-national perspectives, @vasabjit_b suggests multiple scenarios. If US democracy holds, he imagines a transition in under a generation. https://twitter.com/vasabjit_b/status/1296109041886932993
However, @vasabjit_b notes if there is continued democratic erosion, we could be in for further entrenchment of minority-rule. https://twitter.com/vasabjit_b/status/1296110120963842050
A few people pointed to signs that a transition may already be under way. @neipate96 commented “Texas Republican Party is about as non-white as the Massachusetts Democratic Party” and @dhnexon considered possible effects of “suburban realignment.” https://twitter.com/dhnexon/status/1295936989477457920
As @DKarol points out, recent GOP leaders like GW Bush, a Texas Republican, were pushing to create a more diverse party. https://twitter.com/DKarol/status/1295937002140049414
Finally, it’s important to keep in mind that boundaries of “whiteness” have always shifted within US. In striking new working paper, @A_agadjanian finds ”about half of new 2016 GOP voters who previously identified as nonwhite changed to a white identity.” https://twitter.com/A_agadjanian/status/1295908516201283585
In near term, @hakeemjefferson is likely right & GOP is the party of MAGA for next couple national election cycles. Rather than expand coalition, policies will aim to narrow voting franchise on every front: census, USPS, ex-felons, voter rolls purges, etc. https://twitter.com/hakeemjefferson/status/1296120340670636033
To paraphrase @greatdismal, “America’s future is here, it’s just not evenly distributed.” Asian Americans are centered on coasts, African Americans in Southeast & Latinos in Southwest. This is a challenge for both parties. …http://racialdotmap.demographics.coopercenter.org
For Democrats, capturing and holding the Senate will remain a challenge. https://twitter.com/owasow/status/1063548777590636545
For GOP, challenge looks something like @vasabjit_b’s third scenario above: ethno-nationalism that plays well regionally but makes it harder to win nationally. Longer term, then, GOP likely has to confront tension btwn nativist, regional base & party that wants to win presidency.
