Read on Twitter
1/ Earlier this summer, people on Twitter got on my case when I said that #policeabolition/ #policedefunding was not likely to happen in the near future, even though I am an abolitionist. I was correct in my assessment. Let's look at the case of Minneapolis...
2/ The basic issue is that #policeabolition is popular among some progressive and libertarian activists and intellectuals, not the general population. What does the data say about public support for police defunding in Minneapolis and the nation at large?
3/ The Minneapolis Star Tribune did surveyed about 500 people in the city and asked about policies. There was a lot of support for shifting *some* funding from police to other services (73%)but only 40% said the city should reduce the size police force. https://tinyurl.com/y5sv3652
4/ This is similar to what people in the US believe generally. There is support for reform and shifting around resources, but low levels for abolition. For example, this Gallup poll only found that 15% of surveyed people thought abolition was a good idea. https://news.gallup.com/poll/315962/americans-say-policing-needs-major-changes.aspx
5/ When it comes to political analysis, voter opinion is a good place to start. It is not impossible to work against voter opinion, but it is hard. So what happened in Minneapolis when city council started a possible police defunding/abolition process?
6/ The issue is that the city charter requires the existence of a police department. The City Council asked the Charter Commission, which is an agency that helps resolve constitutional city issues, for permission to ask voters to approve a proposal to *possibly* remove police.
7/ The answer: no. The Minneapolis charter commission thought that the reform was too much, too fast. https://www.npr.org/2020/08/06/899881941/minneapolis-charter-commission-puts-police-changes-on-hold
8/ Let's review:nationally and in Minneapolis, voters want reform, not defunding/abolition. The Mayor and Charter commission in Minneapolis want reform and abolition. But local activists and city council want defunding/abolition Result? Reform, not abolition/defunding (for now).
9/ Let's step back and look at national politics. The Democratic party has produced a ticket that is pretty much the opposite of what #BLM/ #policeabolition stand for. This is another sign that while people may want reform, they do not want radical police change.
10/ For me, the interesting question as a social scientist and policy analyst is: given the way things played out in Minneapolis, what tools are left for dealing with misconduct? What will activists do? There are many, but abolition and massive defunding are off for now.
11/ Bottom line: In crisis, radical reforms may seem possible, but there is always an underlying terrain of public opinion. One of the stories of 2020, among many, will be the collision between a small band of police abolitionists and a larger wall of public opinion.
