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In January 2017, @MicahZenko & I argued in @ForeignPolicy there was no Trump Doctrine & would never be one.
With fewer than 80 days before he stands for reelection, how has that argument held up?
In short: Far better than we expected. 1/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/18/this-is-what-america-looks-like-without-grand-strategy/
With fewer than 80 days before he stands for reelection, how has that argument held up?
In short: Far better than we expected. 1/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/18/this-is-what-america-looks-like-without-grand-strategy/
During the 2016 campaign, @thomaswright08 brilliantly distilled Trump's worldview: antagonism toward allies, adoration of strongmen, & aversion to trade. 2/ https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-foreign-policy-213546
Sharp observers like @ColinKahl & @HalBrands argued this "dark and nightmarish" worldview would constitute a grand strategy for the Trump Administration -- albeit a disastrous one. 3/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/31/trumps-grand-strategic-train-wreck/
But @MicahZenko & I predicted these consistent instincts would not serve as a reliable guide to policy because Trump's modus operandi is anti-strategic: obsessed with deals, he is tactical & transactional. 4/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/13/trump-is-going-to-regret-not-having-a-grand-strategy/
Some like Ionut Popescu have subsequently argued that grand strategy doesn't matter much -- US foreign policy can succeed even if it isn't guided by a coherent, long-term vision. 5/ https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2018-05-21/trump-doesnt-need-grand-strategy
And others like @dandrezner Krebs & Schweller contend grand strategy is effectively obsolete -- amidst so much global change, attempting to devise a grand strategy is costly & counterproductive. 6/ https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2020-04-13/end-grand-strategy
But Trump's foreign policy record shows the danger of his tactical-transactional approach. Even on issues where presidential preferences are constant (eg trade, allies, autocrats) the administration has pursued opposing initiatives (eg the NSS & NDS). 7/ https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2017-12-19/national-security-strategy-not-strategy
This say-do gap undermines America's ability to advance its global interests, even as Trump's team defines them. Pompeo's China speech is a case in point: as @MiraRappHooper argued, it tries to rally the very allies Trump has relentlessly denigrated. 8/ https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/28/opinions/united-states-china-coronavirus-rapp-hooper/index.html
America's mercurial foreign policy has confounded the world for almost 4 yrs. If the US remains strategically adrift, we risk consigning ourselves to global irrelevance. It's meaningless to go thru the motions of global leadership if nobody is following. https://bit.ly/325j0TU 9/
What would a new approach look like? In our book, @MiraRappHooper & I describe an openness strategy that is both disciplined & globally engaged. We reject strategic nihilism & argue upheaval creates a narrow window of opportunity the US must seize. 10/10 https://amzn.to/3jqxlC2
