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2 weeks ago we published an investigation on #COVID19 in Damascus: https://tande.substack.com/p/syria-in-context-investigation-covid Since then, we've worked with Imperial, who modelled that for each recorded death there's likely 50-100 more, and an estimated 60-100K active infections in Damascus: https://tande.substack.com/p/syria-in-context-coronavirus-update-da1
Meanwhile, cases are rising outside Damascus. Without urgent intervention we're likely to see the same trajectory in each place over the coming weeks, where caseloads outstrip hospital capacity leading to high numbers of deaths and infection: https://tande.substack.com/p/syria-in-context-coronavirus-update-da1 @SyriaContext
Doctors are treating patients over social media in Syria, as cases are high, testing is sparse, hospitals lack space, and everyone lacks the resources to access proper PPE or treatment. PPE, ventilators, and oxygen are urgently needed across clinical and civilian settings.
The WHO is tied into the official Ministry of Health figures due to how the UN works. The gap between official data and reality was the purpose of putting together research that tried to overcome this underreporting, to provide a sensible alternative baseline for those responding
Underreporting isn't only a Syria problem. Working with Imperial has been important, as even high-profile centres like theirs are struggling to bridge this gap between available data and the reality in closed states like Syria––doing so is impt for response now and in the future.
Frustratingly, it has been like pushing water uphill to get traction on this. The aim isn't to attack those trying to help, but to provide a workaround to underreporting in order to assist in a reset of the scope and urgency of the response needed. It can't happen soon enough.
Anyone with information that would help to firm up these models in the coming weeks is very welcome to dive in and help, particularly if you have substantive data around excess deaths. Your contributions will be gratefully received. DM's are open.
