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European Commission yesterday published a new text for the future UK-EU agreement, filling in the gaps on road transport. It's an interesting read - I recommend everyone to read it. For a couple of reasons... (thread)
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/brexit_files/info_site/additional_draft_text_of_the_agreement_on_the_new_partnership_with_the_united_kingdom_18_august_2020.pdf
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/brexit_files/info_site/additional_draft_text_of_the_agreement_on_the_new_partnership_with_the_united_kingdom_18_august_2020.pdf
1. Skimming through the treaty text shows you how enormously complex and granular the issues in this negotiation are. Everything from agreeing driving and rest times for haulers to the use of tachographs. Multiply this times 30 - this is one from 30+ issues in the negotiation.
2. Negotiations over such difficult issues take months. We're just 10 weeks away from the end of October - by when both sides agree an agreement must be done - and don't have clarity even on the broad parameters of a deal (eg level-playing field), let alone the technical detail.
3. EU and UK have both published their version of the 'truth' - their own legal texts - but haven't started work on the joint text. This is problematic since the really difficult issues are usually resolved only with a joint draft, locked in a room with good, creative lawyers.
4. There's another problem: even once negotiators agree all this detail within 10 weeks, government lawyers will have to go through "legal scrubbing" - a process for making sure that the text is legally operable in UK and EU law. This usually takes months, sometimes a year.
(If you wonder why this didn't take months in the autumn of 2019, when Johnson renegotiated the Northern Ireland protocol, there's a simple reason: it was a relatively short text of 50+ pages, based on a previous draft from 2018. The future treaty will run to 700+ pages.)
5. So, how can this all be done in 10 weeks? It cannot. Those who believe that a full UK-EU treaty can be done this year will be disappointed. At best, we can see an "in-principle" agreement, setting out broad solutions, but not a full treaty of 700+ pages and this detail.
And, because we're unlikely to see a full treaty to be agreed this year, we might see an "implementation period" built into the political deal. This would give both sides time to iron out technical detail; ratify the treaty; and phase in new arrangements over 2021.
