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1. We generally assume two things of government: competence and benevolence. What happens when we get a government that exhibits little of either? Let's take an issue I've been flogging recently; the opening of schools.
2. In the event of a pandemic, a competent government commissions independent scientific research into risks and how to minimise them. The Johnson government has done this, and both sets of scientific advisers have recommended wearing masks in schools. https://twitter.com/adamhamdy/status/1295033269982040067?s=20
3. A competent, benevolent government would seek to minimise harm and implement a relatively simple precautionary measure to protect public health. Political pressure from the right wing of the party means this government isn't following the scientific advice.
4. Is the government malevolent? Careless at best. And it is aided in its carelessness by a vocal anti-science movement determined to equate public health measures with a politically motivated infringement of liberty. People like Karen Sehlke RIP. https://twitter.com/Cleavon_MD/status/1281854907142688768?s=20
5. Once the government ignores its scientific advisers and sets policy, the impact of a careless decision is magnified. I've written to our local council asking about masks in schools.
"Mask are not advised by the Department for Education. We will be following the DfE advice"
"Mask are not advised by the Department for Education. We will be following the DfE advice"
6. Fair enough. It is not the job of local councils or schools to second guess the government, and reach around it to determine their own policy based on the government's scientific advice. Or is it?
7. When central government's competence can't be assumed and benevolence seems in question, do local authorities have a duty to act in what they perceive are the best interests of their residents?
8. I hope they do. Otherwise, as flu season hits, the government will continue to repeat its line that there is no evidence of transmission in schools. But no evidence of transmission is not no transmission. It just means no one is counting. https://twitter.com/adamhamdy/status/1295713708665188353?s=20
9. And anecdotal evidence is coming in from around the world that schools play a significant role in transmission. https://twitter.com/BirgitC/status/1296008874206601217?s=20
10. If schools don't play a significant role, the timing of Sweden's sudden fall in cases is coincidental. https://twitter.com/adamhamdy/status/1294619800551993344?s=20
11. People say, "What are you worried about? The virus is putting fewer people in hospital and mortality is down."
Just like flu and almost every other respiratory virus, which don't cause as much symptomatic infection in summer.
Just like flu and almost every other respiratory virus, which don't cause as much symptomatic infection in summer.
12. This fall in severity could be a sign SARS-CoV-2 has become less virulent, but I suspect what we're seeing is temperature based attenuation. @PatrickSSte published a compelling paper in Medical Hypotheses in 2015. Here's a video summary
13. If I'm wrong and the virus does not become more severe in winter, we can dispense with masks and celebrate. But if I'm right, masks will be an invaluable tool in helping control transmission and saving lives.
14. Conversely, if the government is wrong about transmission through schools and the protective benefits of masks, infection will spike and lives will be lost. The cost of its approach is lives, the cost of the scientific approach is some minor inconvenience. Why gamble?
15. In light of the clear scientific advice the government has been given, it's hard to see how it will be able to play the 'only with the benefit of hindsight' card if its gamble doesn't pay off.
16. If central government won't implement a masks for all policy, I hope local authorities & schools don't put their trust in its benevolence & competence. I hope they look at the scientific advice themselves and implement their own policies to help keep local people safe.
17. As a parent with children at 3 different schools (combined 2,000 pupils), I'm not expecting central government to prioritise public health. As this article by @lukemcgee suggests, the government has too many competing interests. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/16/uk/schools-pubs-uk-reopening-analysis-intl-gbr/index.html
18. I hope people, schools and local government will take action at a community level, and implement a simple measure that will help pupils, staff and the wider population safer.
#Masks4All https://twitter.com/adamhamdy/status/1295455170663522312?s=20
#Masks4All https://twitter.com/adamhamdy/status/1295455170663522312?s=20
