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One of the changes that nobody wants to talk about, especially the DC ally crowd, is that this battle (of many concurrent battles) is being won. Let me briefly explain in a short threat what the real dynamics are. 1/n https://twitter.com/AMFChina/status/1295942806666608648
First, despite critiques always being about Trump the reality was that until recently many countries did not (and many still don't at the official decision level) want to see China as a threat. You could have had any President you wanted, it wasn't going to change their minds 2/n
Like Germany not having an army, you can have any President you want, if they don't agree with you on the issue, it doesn't matter how nice you are or how persuasive you are. Second, USG (note how I use USG and not Trump. Not just political appointees) spent lots of time 3/n
And effort into changing minds and policies on China in other countries at the diplomatic level. For many reasons, these efforts were largely unsuccessful. From a President who does not know the importance of Twitter restraint to not bringing financial muscle to 4/n
Trying to convince the unconvinceable not much changed. This matters thought because it was like tilling the soil or preparing for harvest. Those efforts mattered over time. Third, talk to a variety of people in Europe and Asia and opinion has swung strongly against China 5/n
For the breadth of bad things it has done over the past year that really run the gamut. You can't really point to one thing that changed it but corona and the wealth of things that brought out is probably the biggest. I should emphasize this is not so much people joining 6/n
Trump as allies as thinking back to previous points or conversations and realizing yea, he probably has a point. It's that previous work that went into things and a lot of self realization. In short, Trump admin played a role but they also had favorable circumstances. 7/n
Finally, what you see developing (and the FT article lays it out) exactly what I have been telling you. There is not going to be a global alliance to go kick commie butt. There just isn't that interest and probably never will be. What there will be and what you will see 8/n
Is quiet policy alignment and coordination as countries figure out to play the situation to their liking to both draft behind the US, coordinate some policies, align frequently, and try to remain off Beijing's radar so to speak. All of a sudden countries interested in 9/n
Working on non-Chinese solutions to 5G understanding the importance of clean tech. They don't necessarily support the US but magically their telecom regulations don't allow state linked vendors. This is happening now and call it what you like, I've never been interested in 10/n
phrase coining fights, this is an 2020 alliance forming about how to deal with China.
