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What happened at Notre Dame? Earlier today, the university moved all classes online for 2 weeks in order to slow the spread of the virus stemming from a recent outbreak. Let's take a look at how we got here and lessons for other schools (thread): https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-reopening-notre-dame-to-move-classes-online-due-to-coronavirus-spike-11597784400?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1
UNC took pride in sending test kits from LabCorp to all students before they returned. All of the nearly 12,000 students were tested before they returned to campus to start class on Aug. 10. Of that group just 33 students (0.28%) tested positive. https://www.wsj.com/articles/reopening-schools-college-orientation-at-notre-dame-welcomes-students-to-a-strange-new-world-11597051801
Students returned on August 3 and the university had no plans for screening asymptomatic students; per our records, testing was only available to those with symptoms. As @CT_Bergstrom has noted, testing before arriving on campus as a substitute for arrival testing is futile.
August 16: The student newspaper publishes a piece linking most new cases to an August 9 off-campus party. https://ndsmcobserver.com/2020/08/university-expands-health-check-links-outbreak-to-aug-9-off-campus-party/
August 17: A letter from a staff member is published. "I am happy to be back, but all of the preparation in the world won’t work if people don’t follow the guidelines." https://ndsmcobserver.com/2020/08/a-letter-from-a-staff-member/
August 18: The dashboard is updated with new cases. The university reported 80 new cases in one day. Test positivity is now at almost 16%. This is concerning. See these charts.
Later in the day, the university moves online “The virus is a formidable foe,” Notre Dame's president said announcing enhanced testing for students experiencing symptoms and surveillance testing for those without symptoms. https://news.nd.edu/news/notre-dame-enacts-two-weeks-of-remote-instruction/
So was this inevitable? The university did not have an effective surveillance testing strategy, and college students are college students. There are no surprises here. Community spread has started and will continue. Will watch closely over the next few days.
Are you a university looking for a testing plan? Check out @ADPaltiel and @RWalensky's paper here advocating for regular asymptomatic screening. It's the only way colleges will be able to operate this semester. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2768923?resultClick=3
I hope this thread brings some much-needed context to all that has happened at Notre Dame. Unfortunately, as we have found (with @lpachter, @sinabooeshaghi, @faythtan and @DrZackaryBerger), many other schools could follow the same path. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.09.20171223v1
Special thanks to the @NDSMCObserver for all their diligent reporting and @KelliSmithNews for her @chicagotribune coverage.
