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Thread on $TSLA vs $NKLA
Nikola's business model is oposite to Tesla's business for the Class 8 trucks.
The two won't work together. One will win over the other.
The other will disappear as fast as it appeared.
On theory, in both's best case. Tesla's model is the best.
1/
Nikola's business model is oposite to Tesla's business for the Class 8 trucks.
The two won't work together. One will win over the other.
The other will disappear as fast as it appeared.
On theory, in both's best case. Tesla's model is the best.
1/
The future of Trucking is in the gymnatics.
Tesla already has all it needs to do it.
- Charging Infra experience
- Manufacturing experience
- Batteries
- Solar
- Autobidder
- Sales and Services experience
- Autopilot
- Software
2/
Tesla already has all it needs to do it.
- Charging Infra experience
- Manufacturing experience
- Batteries
- Solar
- Autobidder
- Sales and Services experience
- Autopilot
- Software
2/
Tesla will use the scale of its cars manufacturing to get the cost down for the trucks and the megachargers.
They will use :
- Batteries
- Motors
- Electronics
- Octovalve
- Seats
- Materials
They already have everything they need. Now they need to put it together.
3/
They will use :
- Batteries
- Motors
- Electronics
- Octovalve
- Seats
- Materials
They already have everything they need. Now they need to put it together.
3/
Nikola on the other hand has almost nothing by itself.
They have the design patents and a few others.
They rely on other companies IP, resources and skills to do the most importants things for the gymnastics.
4/
They have the design patents and a few others.
They rely on other companies IP, resources and skills to do the most importants things for the gymnastics.
4/
Key partners :
- Bosch for Trucks electronics and powertrain/batteries
- Hanwha for Electricity
- Nel for Electrolisers - Iveco for manufacturing
They also lost key partners :
- Ryder for the sales and service
- Fitzgerald for the early manufacturing
5/
- Bosch for Trucks electronics and powertrain/batteries
- Hanwha for Electricity
- Nel for Electrolisers - Iveco for manufacturing
They also lost key partners :
- Ryder for the sales and service
- Fitzgerald for the early manufacturing
5/
Nikola will announce a partner for the hydrogen stations soon.
We don't know what the partnership will be about. But it appears that it could be Hanhwa that would operate the stations.
If it's true, it means Nikola has nothing.
6/
We don't know what the partnership will be about. But it appears that it could be Hanhwa that would operate the stations.
If it's true, it means Nikola has nothing.
6/
The Nikola orders.
The AB orders are not realy binding yet. Nikola will have to provide at least one Nikola Two FCEV by end 2021 with the H2 stations to refuel.
Then AB will have 90 days to test it and decide if they're happy. They could get out the deal if not happy.
7/
The AB orders are not realy binding yet. Nikola will have to provide at least one Nikola Two FCEV by end 2021 with the H2 stations to refuel.
Then AB will have 90 days to test it and decide if they're happy. They could get out the deal if not happy.
7/
It means Nikola's valuation today makes no sense because there is no solid foundation for the company. At the moment it's a house of cards that can fall entirely in an instant.
Some Partners left, current partners could go anytime. No company to sell or service the trucks.
8/
Some Partners left, current partners could go anytime. No company to sell or service the trucks.
8/
Every partners will take their profits. They're not a charity.
So Nikola actually have 0 margins of error.
Anyone with a brain can understand that a startup with 0 margin of error can not work. It's a business plan that may work in people's imagination but won't in reality.
So Nikola actually have 0 margins of error.
Anyone with a brain can understand that a startup with 0 margin of error can not work. It's a business plan that may work in people's imagination but won't in reality.
End.
