Whether the coup in Mali is popular or not, there is a massive international presence (security and political) in Mali, and since 2013 there have been numerous programs active in the country aimed at SSR, training, education, and capacity building for Mali’s security forces. 1/5

Over the course of the recent protests, the International Community in different forms made it quite clear that any « anti-constitutional » removal of the president from power - whatever that means - would not be acceptable. But now this same international community is faced 2/5

3/5 With a very hard choice. They can condemn the coup (as the AU, France, the US, and others) already have, but to what end? If the putschists wish to hold power, how will the international community react? If they move to something like a government of national unity...

4/5 But based around the M5/RFP, will this same international community accept it, or refuse it recognition? Such a move would have massive implications for international development and security operations in Mali. And it’s hard to imagine the putschists simply returning...

5/5 IBK to power and pretending like nothing happened, though I guess at this point anything is possible. We don’t know, and we shouldn’t jump to any conclusions in such a fluid situation. But this is a huge development that will continue to reverberate across the region.