Read on Twitter
Strap yourselves in for an EPIC thread on why federally subsidized private rental & defining area median rent as ‘affordable’ sucks. Welcome to Housing Needs Assessment 101! @nicholas_falvo @Hulchanski @Ayan604 @CMHC_ca #onpoli #canpoli @jm_mcgrath https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/new-30-storey-rental-on-preston-gets-86-4m-boost-from-feds
Needs assessments calculate how much housing you need at what prices, sizes, & locations, to ensure that everyone has an adequate home - see NHS Act. It should underpin EVERY housing strategy – at fed, p/t, and city levels. @ottawacity does not have one: https://ottawa.ca/en/family-and-social-services/housing
National Housing Strategy says 1.7 mill Can in ‘housing need’ in 2016- >30% of their income on home or overcrowded or poor repair. Doesn’t answer basic questions like what price points, sizes, & where or plan to provide #Housing4All https://www.placetocallhome.ca/
Better strategies – like @CityofVancouver- provide need at all income levels – from very poor to rich. This helps clarify targets & mechanisms. Vancouver’s median hh income (AMI) 2016 is low by Can standards - $65,000 – income categories are approx. 20%, 50%, 80%, 120%, 200%
So Step 1: Start with AMI, b/c that helps set who can afford what. Ottawa is a rich city: almost $86,000 AMI, as compared to Can av of $70,000 (Montreal is $50,000). CMHC says av rent in Ottawa is $1,302, which is affordable to mod income hh (80% AMI). https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/hmip-pimh/en/TableMapChart/Table?TableId=2.1.31.2&GeographyId=35&GeographyTypeId=2&DisplayAs=Table&GeograghyName=Ontario
Step 2: divide pop into hh income categories. Very low income hh @ 20% AMI have <$20,000/yr. That’s 8.3% or almost 32,000 hhs. Most can’t afford more than max shelter allowance of $375. Much more than 100 households https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/alliance-to-end-homelessness-ottawa-city-of-ottawa-look-for-100-affordable-housing-units-by-september-1.5057818
Step 3: HH size & characteristics. Some seniors living on pensions– some might have paid-off mortgages, most not so lucky. People with disability, single moms, youth aging out of care. Many staying in violent relationships, skipping meals, overcrowded https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/51-per-cent-of-food-bank-users-in-eastern-ontario-miss-a-meal-to-pay-bills-report-1.5063287
Step 4: What is deficit? Even with a CERB of $2,000/mo, how many available apts are there at, say, $800/mo? We know that from 2011-16, for every 1 subsidized home created 2011-16, 15 affordable units were lost. WE HAVE A HUGE DEFICIT OF LOW-COST HOMES. http://www.focus-consult.com/why-canada-needs-a-non-market-rental-acquisition-strategy/
Repeat for each income category. 15.1% or 57,000 low income hhs earn $20-45,000/yr. These are folks in min wage gig economy etc. They can pay a max affordable rent of $500-1,125, still well below the subsidized rents offered thru CMHC loan. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-rents-minimum-wage-tenant-advocate-1.4673287
Step 5: Once you have deficit (esp for very low & low income hhs), you need to calculate needs of growing pop (1%/year in Ottawa & Canada) for period of plan (eg., NHS 2016-2030). Oops, NHS forgot to do that! https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/no-ottawa-has-not-put-forth-a-national-housing-strategy/article37173057/
Back to @ottawacity. Let’s get real with a # like 100,000 homes by 2030, mostly low-rent (to address huge deficit & pop growth). Meanwhile, speculative investors are scooping up low-rent homes, which has led to (cap time) INCREASED HOMESSLESSNESS https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/rental-housing-investment-feature
So Solution 1: Prioritize lowest-income hhs for intervention. Don’t return homeless people to streets/ encampments. That requires a govt acquisition strategy for hotels, commercial properties, rooming houses, etc. Ontario and Can, follow BC Housing lead! https://www.bchousing.org/news?newsId=1479156265302
Solution 2: stop affordable housing hemorrhage. Continued ban on evictions. All suitable govt land free to non-profit dvmt. Why non-profit? Because that makes the biggest difference to rents, esp long term– see p. 72 of this meta evaluation report http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/regional-planning/PlanningPublications/ReducingBarrierHighLandCost.pdf
Solution 3: all govts need consistent AH targets & regulatory, taxation, financing, & other mechanisms to deliver these targets. @hamburg_de has agreement with developers: 10,000 new homes/yr, 1/3 subsidized, 1/3 rental, 1/3 ownership. Do that, get permit https://www.handelsblatt.com/english/finance/something-for-everyone-hamburg-fights-housing-crunch-with-cooperation/23583140.html?ticket=ST-8518432-6K95dom5UbbbfProcvdS-ap3
Honestly, don’t @ me with developer-driven, ad hoc approach that isn't based on right to adequate housing or Housing Needs Assessment 101. For more read this 2018 article by @katrinaeve @drmattpalm & me. \\Whitzman out. https://theconversation.com/ten-lessons-from-cities-that-have-risen-to-the-affordable-housing-challenge-102852
