#STL Verdict, a thread
/1/ - 11 years after the formation of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, many in Lebanon have mixed feelings about the STL's verdict. Some expected and feared a clear indictment of the Syrian regime and Hezbollah of having orchestrated the assassination

/2/ But due to the limited mandate of the STL to prosecute state parties and the difficulty of finding a smoking gun that implicates the leaders of Hezbollah, the court has focused most of its proceedings on individuals who could clearly be proven to have been involved

/3/ After a lenghty overview of the evidence, most of which relies on analysing mobile phone call data belonging to the surveillance and assassiantion team, STL found the main suspect Salim Ayyash guilty of all counts, but acquitted the other suspects due to insufficient evidence

/4/ STL chose to label Ayyash as a hezbollah supporter given the difficulty of proving membership of the secretive militant group, he is a known affiliate to two priminent Hezbollah leaders, Imad Mughnieh and Mustafa Badreddine, both of whom were killed in Syria, in 2008 and 2016

/5/ Both men were thought to be involved in Hariri's murder but the STL has not included them in its final indictment.

/6/ - As Hezbollah, a party that today dominates Lebanese politics, refused to cooperate with the court from day one, accusing it of executing a US-Israeli conspiracy, all the accused Hezbollah supporters, have been tried in absentia. Their whereabouts remain unknown

/7/ In Lebanon, political leaders and ordinary Lebanese have been nervously waiting for the court's decision, expecting a guilty verdict against the powerful Hezbollah to trigger clashes between (Saad) Hariri's mainly Sunni Muslim supporters and Hezbollah's mainly Shia supporters

/8/ However, Lebanon is already reeling from multiple crises caused by an economic collapse since October 2019, a surge in Covid-19 cases, and the massive explosion that struck earlier this month devastating much of Beirut.

/9/ International powers now pressuring Lebanon to form a neutral government to carry out reforms and Hezbollah to accept a smaller role in government may find the verdict conducive to their efforts.

/10/ But as the STL's verdict has stopped short of officially accusing Hezbollah of ordering the assassination, only suggesting that this was 'likely', many in Lebanon could now be breathing a sigh of relief for avoiding another escalation they do not need.

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