Read on Twitter
Attempting to understand the market cycle & paying attention to investor sentiment are critical indicators to follow.
Due to over-leverage, when property crashes, it goes hard like 1974, 1991 & 2008.
Some claim this is the famous 18-year cycle.
Next stop early to mid-2020?
Due to over-leverage, when property crashes, it goes hard like 1974, 1991 & 2008.
Some claim this is the famous 18-year cycle.
Next stop early to mid-2020?
Sentiment wise, property is ripe for downturn when the following is heard:
• amazing returns achieved with underlying leverage
• how to get rich quick being a real estate GP
• every man & his dog refinancing like it 2006
• why current CAP rates are still very attractive
• amazing returns achieved with underlying leverage
• how to get rich quick being a real estate GP
• every man & his dog refinancing like it 2006
• why current CAP rates are still very attractive
We have already started moving from equity investments to mezzanine debt last 2-3 years, still achieving very handsome returns with ample downside protection.
If property overheats even more in coming quarters, it will be smart to stop investing & start piling on cash.
If property overheats even more in coming quarters, it will be smart to stop investing & start piling on cash.
This is completely opposite approach to what most sponsors, GPs and fund managers are doing near the peak of a great decade-long real estate boom.
Their personal income depends on fees, so they will always spin you a story of why you should be apart of their new equity raise.
Their personal income depends on fees, so they will always spin you a story of why you should be apart of their new equity raise.
