In IR we study at length how countries under pressure domestically will try to divert attention by engaging in low intensity conflicts. The key logic is that diversion works.

Most authoritarian rulers utilize diversion internally as well. Look at Erdogan and Hagia Sophia case

The reason diversion works so well now more than ever is the 24 hour news cycle. As long as you can stay on top of the 24 news cycle with a diversion, the last 24 hours of your actions get lost in the shuffle. Authoritarians have used this approach very effectively at home

So, the trick is to look past the 24 hour news cycle and focus on the pattern while discounting detours/distractions as mere outliers. Problem is, journalism is not designed for that or at least does not understand the damage of its current constant ADHD approach