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Brexit talks are back.
The UK thinks a deal “can be reached in September”. EU is sceptical it will happen that quickly, esp. w/o more movement from the British.
Expect shadow-boxing and stalemate in August. Autumn deal? Let’s see - thread
The UK thinks a deal “can be reached in September”. EU is sceptical it will happen that quickly, esp. w/o more movement from the British.
Expect shadow-boxing and stalemate in August. Autumn deal? Let’s see - thread
The agenda.
Michel Barnier and David Frost dine tonight - the usual opener for these rounds. To be followed by two days of talks on all the key issues, with most time dedicated to level playing field, fisheries and criminal/judicial co-operation.
So far, so typical.
Michel Barnier and David Frost dine tonight - the usual opener for these rounds. To be followed by two days of talks on all the key issues, with most time dedicated to level playing field, fisheries and criminal/judicial co-operation.
So far, so typical.
David Frost has said: “Our assessment is that agreement can be reached in September”. UK officials declined to share their grounds for optimism.
I note reports citing EU sources as "bullish" that LPF is “almost settled”. Not so fast.
I note reports citing EU sources as "bullish" that LPF is “almost settled”. Not so fast.
The two big issues are far from solved.
EU official: “On fisheries, it’s solvable. Maybe not this week, not maybe not next week but over the coming weeks…. Level playing field is so much more complicated.”
EU official: “On fisheries, it’s solvable. Maybe not this week, not maybe not next week but over the coming weeks…. Level playing field is so much more complicated.”
EU officials do not share September optimism, just as they were sceptical about Boris Johnson’s ‘outline deal’ by July.
Per second EU official: “On most topics we are not in proper negotiations. We are still talking about the framework. On no issue are we discussing text.”
Per second EU official: “On most topics we are not in proper negotiations. We are still talking about the framework. On no issue are we discussing text.”
That matters. EU version of draft future relationship treaty is 440 pages. Negotiating that line by line takes time. Michel Barnier says October is the deadline. EU deadlines, including Brexit ones, can and have proved somewhat flexible, but 31 December 2020 is fixed in law.
But you say - wasn’t the withdrawal agreement knocked into shape in weeks, following Boris Johnson’s political backflip b/w August and October.
To a point. The withdrawal agreement was only 177 pages - and main changes to just one part - the Irish protocol (63 pages).
To a point. The withdrawal agreement was only 177 pages - and main changes to just one part - the Irish protocol (63 pages).
The future relationship agreement is a far, longer, more complicated text, with more sticking points still open. The EU is concerned that talks are not moving fast enough. Moving to negotiating text needs preparation: “You need incremental changes to have a big breakthrough.”
EU thinks UK is not engaging with its red lines.
Michel Barnier on 23 July: “the UK has not shown the same level of engagement and readiness to find solutions respecting the EU's fundamental principles and interests.” That thinking has not changed after few weeks at the beach.
Michel Barnier on 23 July: “the UK has not shown the same level of engagement and readiness to find solutions respecting the EU's fundamental principles and interests.” That thinking has not changed after few weeks at the beach.
Most of this thread reports the EU point of view. UK officials declined to talk about the talks - beyond public statements by David Frost - so I don’t have a clear sense of what their optimism is based on.
The conventional wisdom is that all the pieces will fall into place in the autumn.
Personally I think a deal more likely than not 1. because the no-deal cost for the UK is high 2. Boris Johnson has form on dramatic u-turns that are dressed up as great victories. And...
Personally I think a deal more likely than not 1. because the no-deal cost for the UK is high 2. Boris Johnson has form on dramatic u-turns that are dressed up as great victories. And...
....3. The EU has signalled willingness to compromise on fisheries.
I don’t share the view there has been a big EU climb down on ECJ, but the UK has signalled a compromise on governance, while EU is ready to help with presentation.
But LPF is stuck.
I don’t share the view there has been a big EU climb down on ECJ, but the UK has signalled a compromise on governance, while EU is ready to help with presentation.
But LPF is stuck.
But, there is a non-negligible chance of no-deal, imo. The two sides are far apart on substance, there is a very complicated legal document to be negotiated.
As ever with Brexit, to be continued… https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2020/aug/18/uk-coronavirus-live-gavin-williamson-criticised-over-exam-results-u-turn?CMP=share_btn_tw&page=with:block-5f3bb8e98f08f8e2a854ba60#block-5f3bb8e98f08f8e2a854ba60
As ever with Brexit, to be continued… https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2020/aug/18/uk-coronavirus-live-gavin-williamson-criticised-over-exam-results-u-turn?CMP=share_btn_tw&page=with:block-5f3bb8e98f08f8e2a854ba60#block-5f3bb8e98f08f8e2a854ba60
