Changing my mind about Wales.
A few years ago I’d have wrote off Welsh independence chances as below 0.1%.

But if Scots leave & prosper & Ireland unifies the dynamic completely changes.

At that point why be a mere appendage to a Brexit-nationalist England?

Countries need narratives, so..imagine this one..

It’s EU summit 2030
Scots & Irish leaders are walking on the world stage in front of cameras, with their EU commissioners.

And Wales?
They’ve got an English Tory govt they’ve never ever voted for....in 200 years of democracy.

3/

Even if majority of welsh against independence something will change.

The British narrative will have gone. Replaced by the English narrative.

This might work for England. But how is that going to work for Welsh?

4/

At this point Wales will face a crisis & a choice:

It will no longer be able to follow a welsh “cultural nationalism inside Britain” - as there’s no Britain to be part of.

The narrative choice will be

1. A welsh regional appendage to England

or

2. A form of Independence

5/

Don’t get me wrong the economics of welsh independence worse than Scotland’s.

But at risk of boring people “countries need narratives”..

..& with England alone, what does that make Wales?

Another piece of England?

The road to welsh independence runs thru Scotland.

/ends