Quite clear where the STL is going with its verdict -- named Hezbollah operatives will be not found guilty for lack of evidence beyond reasonable doubt. It will be a controversial verdict (and @BeirutCalling is vindicated).

Some early thoughts about potential consequences:

1. It will embolden and relieve pressure on Hezbollah (which has resisted the STL, undermined the investigation, claimed it was an international conspiracy) at the best possible moment for it given the domestic outrage over the Beirut blast.

2. It will further weaken Hariri -- the STL was a way to keep his base motivated and consolidated. He will be criticized for the political/financial cost, and compelled to enter pol deals (which he did in the past) with those he believes killed his father w/ an even weaker hand.

3. It will allow Iran to pose as an unjustly maligned party. It was unimaginable that Hezbollah would have carried the assassination w/o Iranian consent, and this was one of the many charges directed at Iran in the Arab world.

4. It will allow Assad to rebuild relations with Arab states that shunned him (on and off) since 2005. Saudi was in the lead (footing part of the bill) but that was under Abdallah. The current Saudi leadership does not care much about this.

5. It will further demoralize Lebanese who believe in the need for international investigation and processes, especially in the context of the Beirut blast. The STL was not only about justice, it was also about avoiding revenge.