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True Player Values Think Salah costs £12m? Reckon you can bag KDB for £11.5m?
Think again.
Using @FPLRatchet’s True value theory and @Firetog_’s Fixed cost theory, assisted by @FPL_Tez, I have calculated how much players will really cost you this season and how many points you could expect per £1m spent.
For each player I’ve calculated:
True Price = actual price listed on FPL - minimum price for that position.
True points from last season = Last season’s actual points - average points for base price player in the best base price squad.
True Price = actual price listed on FPL - minimum price for that position.
True points from last season = Last season’s actual points - average points for base price player in the best base price squad.
The best base price squad was:
20 Martin
11 McGovern
144 Lundstram
84 Rico
64 Kelly
51 B Williams
26 Lamptey
111 Cantwell
100 Dendoncker
90 Douglas Luiz
73 Hayden
71 Saka
103 Greenwood
61 Connolly
39 Martinelli
20 Martin
11 McGovern
144 Lundstram
84 Rico
64 Kelly
51 B Williams
26 Lamptey
111 Cantwell
100 Dendoncker
90 Douglas Luiz
73 Hayden
71 Saka
103 Greenwood
61 Connolly
39 Martinelli
Averages per position for base price = points per million.
GK 15.5 for 4.0 = 3.88ppm
DEF 56.25* for 4.0 = 14.06ppm
MID 89 for 4.5 = 19.78ppm
FWD 68 for 4.5 = 15.04ppm
GK 15.5 for 4.0 = 3.88ppm
DEF 56.25* for 4.0 = 14.06ppm
MID 89 for 4.5 = 19.78ppm
FWD 68 for 4.5 = 15.04ppm
*Lundstram has been removed as an anomaly due to the way FPL misclassified him and the slim chance we’ll find another 144 point 4.0 MID listed as a DEF.
So without spending a penny of our discretionary £36m budget we can expect to get the above points per million.
So without spending a penny of our discretionary £36m budget we can expect to get the above points per million.
Take TAA as an example:
Price 7.5m
True price = 7.5m - 4m = 3.5m
Last season’s points 210
Last season’s base price average points 56
True points = 154
True points per million (TPPM) = 44
Price 7.5m
True price = 7.5m - 4m = 3.5m
Last season’s points 210
Last season’s base price average points 56
True points = 154
True points per million (TPPM) = 44
Below I’ll display the players, their True Prices, True Points and the best TPPM by position.
GKs
0.5 for 120 Ryan 239ppm
0.5 for 89 McCarthy 177ppm
0.5 for 68 Heaton 135ppm
1.0 for 128 Dubravka 128ppm
1.0 for 122 Guaita 122ppm
1.5 for 155 Pope 103ppm
1.0 for 102 Pickford 102ppm
1.0 for 99 Leno 99ppm
0.5 for 120 Ryan 239ppm
0.5 for 89 McCarthy 177ppm
0.5 for 68 Heaton 135ppm
1.0 for 128 Dubravka 128ppm
1.0 for 122 Guaita 122ppm
1.5 for 155 Pope 103ppm
1.0 for 102 Pickford 102ppm
1.0 for 99 Leno 99ppm
1.5 for 145 Henderson 96ppm
1.5 for 141 Schmeichel 94ppm
——————
2.0 for 118 Ederson 59ppm
2.0 for 107 Alisson 53ppm
1.5 for 141 Schmeichel 94ppm
——————
2.0 for 118 Ederson 59ppm
2.0 for 107 Alisson 53ppm
DEFs
1.0 for 77 Egan 77ppm
1.0 for 72 Dunk 72ppm
1.0 for 67 Basham 67ppm
1.0 for 62 Coady 62ppm
1.0 for 60 Lindelof 60ppm
1.5 for 87 Tarkowski 58ppm
1.5 for 86 Baldock 57ppm
1.5 for 86 Stevens 57ppm
2.0 for 111 Doherty 55ppm
1.0 for 55 O’Connell 55ppm
1.0 for 77 Egan 77ppm
1.0 for 72 Dunk 72ppm
1.0 for 67 Basham 67ppm
1.0 for 62 Coady 62ppm
1.0 for 60 Lindelof 60ppm
1.5 for 87 Tarkowski 58ppm
1.5 for 86 Baldock 57ppm
1.5 for 86 Stevens 57ppm
2.0 for 111 Doherty 55ppm
1.0 for 55 O’Connell 55ppm
1.0 for 54 Mee 54ppm
2.5 for 122 VVD 49ppm
———————-
3.5 for 154 TAA 44ppm
3.0 for 125 Robertson 42ppm
2.5 for 122 VVD 49ppm
———————-
3.5 for 154 TAA 44ppm
3.0 for 125 Robertson 42ppm
MIDs
1.0 for 28 Westwood 29ppm
2.5 for 60 Grealish 24ppm
1.0 for 24 Moutinho 24ppm
7.0 for 162 KDB 23ppm
1.5 for 34 McNeil 23ppm
3.5 for 79 Willian 23ppm
4.0 for 86 Mahrez 22ppm
5.0 for 110 Rashford 22ppm**
0.5 for 11 Dendoncker 22ppm
2.0 for 41 Traore 21ppm
1.0 for 28 Westwood 29ppm
2.5 for 60 Grealish 24ppm
1.0 for 24 Moutinho 24ppm
7.0 for 162 KDB 23ppm
1.5 for 34 McNeil 23ppm
3.5 for 79 Willian 23ppm
4.0 for 86 Mahrez 22ppm
5.0 for 110 Rashford 22ppm**
0.5 for 11 Dendoncker 22ppm
2.0 for 41 Traore 21ppm
2.0 for 40 Perez 20ppm
7.5 for 144 Salah 19ppm
7.5 for 141 Aubameyang 19ppm**
2.5 for 48 Mount 19ppm
1.5 for 28 JWP 19ppm
2.5 for 44 Barnes 18ppm
7.5 for 132 Mane 18ppm
4.5 for 80 Son 18ppm
7.0 for 115 Sterling 16ppm
7.5 for 144 Salah 19ppm
7.5 for 141 Aubameyang 19ppm**
2.5 for 48 Mount 19ppm
1.5 for 28 JWP 19ppm
2.5 for 44 Barnes 18ppm
7.5 for 132 Mane 18ppm
4.5 for 80 Son 18ppm
7.0 for 115 Sterling 16ppm
FWDs
1.5 for 64 Ayew 43ppm
2.0 for 68 Wood 34ppm
4.0 for 130 Ings 33ppm
4.0 for 126 Jimenez 32ppm
2.0 for 63 Maupay 32ppm
3.0 for 85 Abraham 28ppm
5.5 for 142 Vardy 26ppm
4.5 for 107 Martial 24ppm**
3.5 for 85 Richarlison 24ppm
1.5 for 64 Ayew 43ppm
2.0 for 68 Wood 34ppm
4.0 for 130 Ings 33ppm
4.0 for 126 Jimenez 32ppm
2.0 for 63 Maupay 32ppm
3.0 for 85 Abraham 28ppm
5.5 for 142 Vardy 26ppm
4.5 for 107 Martial 24ppm**
3.5 for 85 Richarlison 24ppm
2.5 for 58 DCL 23ppm
——————
5.0 for 87 Firmino 17ppm
5.0 for 78 Jesus 16ppm
6.0 for 90 Kane 15ppm
6.0 for 64 Aguero 11ppm
**Points adjusted for position change.
——————
5.0 for 87 Firmino 17ppm
5.0 for 78 Jesus 16ppm
6.0 for 90 Kane 15ppm
6.0 for 64 Aguero 11ppm
**Points adjusted for position change.
Limitations of this approach:
1. You can’t fill a squad based solely on these stats as you probably wouldn’t spend your £36m discretionary budget and would end up with about 1800 points.
1. You can’t fill a squad based solely on these stats as you probably wouldn’t spend your £36m discretionary budget and would end up with about 1800 points.
2. It assumes you own them for a full season which is rarely the case and some players stats are poorer for the fact they had reduced appearances due to injury.
3. It assumes players will score similarly to last season, which isn’t guaranteed.
3. It assumes players will score similarly to last season, which isn’t guaranteed.
Thanks for taking the time to read this far. Hope you find the data useful.
