1.1 As Special Tribunal for #Lebanon gets ready to issue its verdict, one cannot help but feel a massive sense of disappointment and missed opportunity – regardless of today’s outcome. Why? (a thread)

1.2 There is the obvious reason. A courtroom with no accused can never satisfy any justice imperative. But more broadly, the STL failed in what should have been its primary objective: create a shock to the system of impunity that has ruled Lebanon.

1.3 The reasons for failure are many. Some tied to international politics (including issues with international justice mechanisms) and others related to Lebanese local dynamics (including a vicious and dirty campaign by Hezbollah and its supporters to discredit it)

1.4 Ironically, STL's judgment (which is likely to be a passing blip at this stage) is occuring at a moment when domestic aspirations for accountability are at their highest in Lebanon. For the first time, one can say there is a mass popular movement in Lebanon demanding justice

1.5 This movement has to be nurtured. Its main energy should be about creating domestic mechanisms for accountability. The debate in Lebanon about the need for an independent judiciary is a lot stronger today than it was back in 2005.

1.6 While the priority should be about building the domestic mechanisms to overturn impunity, is there still a need or space for international mechanisms?
Yes, but in a different form.

1.7 Political crimes in Lebanon still have international sources/ramifications, and no judge -however independent- will be able to address crimes that have international sponsors. But the STL's failure should make us rethink what sort of international mechanism could be helpful.

1.8 We must no longer outsource problem and hope that others deal with it for us (they will likely fail) but think of possible hybrid mechanisms that could come in support of national efforts. One interesting model is Guatemala’s International Commission against Impunity (CICIG)

1.9 CICIG is an independent body with international staff to support the Public Prosecutor's Office, the National Police and other state institutions in the investigation of sensitive and difficult cases. The ultimate goal of CICIG's work is to strengthen national institutions

1.10 So where do we go now?

We focus on building our judiciary and continue to build popular support for ending impunity.