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I'm seeing a lot of Aaron Jones slander on this website and I'm not here for it. 1/?
"You're drafting Aaron Jones at his ceiling! Don't do it!"
Jones is coming off the board RB9 (BB10) to RB14 (FFPC best ball), so let's use RB10-RB12 as a fair estimate of his current positional ADP.
Jones was RB2 last year with 315 PPR fantasy points. That's his ceiling.
2/?
Jones is coming off the board RB9 (BB10) to RB14 (FFPC best ball), so let's use RB10-RB12 as a fair estimate of his current positional ADP.
Jones was RB2 last year with 315 PPR fantasy points. That's his ceiling.
2/?
Since 2000, there were 20 RBs age 25 or under who scored 300-330 PPR FP and played 10+ games the following season. Those RBs averaged 18.6 PPG with a low of 11.2 (Peyton Hillis) and a high of 24.2 (Clinton Portis). 18.6 would have been the 8th-highest average in 2019.
3/?
3/?
"His TDs are going to regress!"
Yeah, probably. He had 19 last year. Had he scored half that number, he would have finished RB7 instead of RB2.
4/?
Yeah, probably. He had 19 last year. Had he scored half that number, he would have finished RB7 instead of RB2.
4/?
"They drafted AJ Dillon!"
Dillon could conceivably cut into Jones's workload, but it's more likely that he digs into Jamaal Williams' 10.4 touches per game since Jones is a great running back and Williams is decent to good.
5/?
Dillon could conceivably cut into Jones's workload, but it's more likely that he digs into Jamaal Williams' 10.4 touches per game since Jones is a great running back and Williams is decent to good.
5/?
Aaron Jones's PFF rushing grades over the last three seasons:
2017: 4th
2018: 5th
2019: 6th
He's the only back to finish in the top 10 in all three seasons.
Per PFR, he has the third-highest YPC (5.02) in that span of all RB with at least 200 carries. https://bit.ly/JonesIsGood
2017: 4th
2018: 5th
2019: 6th
He's the only back to finish in the top 10 in all three seasons.
Per PFR, he has the third-highest YPC (5.02) in that span of all RB with at least 200 carries. https://bit.ly/JonesIsGood
The Packers famously failed to add much talent at the receiving position. Devin Funchess was the big signing and he has decided to opt-out. Jones proved he was one of the top receiving backs in the league with the 13th-highest yards per route run at his position, per PFF
Sure, Dillon figures to get some carries as the Packers' try to salt the clock away in the fourth quarter. Maybe he'll be involved throughout the game. But Matt LeFleur and Co. would be making a mistake to take one of the most productive running backs off the field.
Jones is a fine value in the RB9-RB12 range & a great value in the late-second round (RB14 at FFPC). He's not being drafted at his ceiling; he's being drafted assuming a big drop in touchdowns and a small (and debatable) reduction in touches. That makes him as a low-end RB1.
fin
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