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@AEMO_Media's latest planning document plots a number of possible futures for the national electricity market.the most progressive, the "step change" scenario, has us at 96% renewable in 2042.
but is that a stretch goal?
tl;dr: nope
ā¦https://reneweconomy.com.au/is-aemos-step-change-scenario-of-94-renewables-really-a-stretch-target-51027/
over the decade to FY2020 renewable generation additions (incremental energy) grew by 12% p.a. average ā not smoothly, becauseā¦ politics.
AEMO expects huge growth next 2 years.
if additions then revert to 2018-2021 average and grow by measly 1.2% p.a. over next 2 decadesā¦
AEMO expects huge growth next 2 years.
if additions then revert to 2018-2021 average and grow by measly 1.2% p.a. over next 2 decadesā¦
ā¦we'll be on the purple line, which is basically the step change scenario.
we're effective already on the step change scenario. the RE sector is totally capable of building the required generation.
ā¦but that doesn't mean it's assuredā¦
we're effective already on the step change scenario. the RE sector is totally capable of building the required generation.
ā¦but that doesn't mean it's assuredā¦
to realise this future, AEMO has developed "living plans" (ISP & RIS) for:
ā¢Ā transmission
ā¢ storage
ā¢Ā grid integration
ā¦we need to implement these
ā¦and electricity retailers / big customers need to keep signing power purchase agreements
ā¦or we plan coal retirements.
ā¢Ā transmission
ā¢ storage
ā¢Ā grid integration
ā¦we need to implement these
ā¦and electricity retailers / big customers need to keep signing power purchase agreements
ā¦or we plan coal retirements.
btw, under the step change scenario, #victoria would be coal free in 2037, and 99.6% renewables in 2042.
ā¦contrary to what nuclear fan @BNW_Ben says:
https://twitter.com/BNW_Ben/status/1294137200532045824?s=20
ā¦contrary to what nuclear fan @BNW_Ben says:
https://twitter.com/BNW_Ben/status/1294137200532045824?s=20
ā¦and ironically, under the scenario, our grid's emissions intensity would fall by 95% to 30 kgCOāe/MWh, which is cleaner than france's. 
for more, read @GilesParkinson's piece:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/is-aemos-step-change-scenario-of-94-renewables-really-a-stretch-target-51027/
[remember: scenarios aren't predictions ā just possible futures.]
for more, read @GilesParkinson's piece:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/is-aemos-step-change-scenario-of-94-renewables-really-a-stretch-target-51027/
[remember: scenarios aren't predictions ā just possible futures.]
