@AEMO_Media's latest planning document plots a number of possible futures for the national electricity market.

the most progressive, the "step change" scenario, has us at 96% renewable in 2042.

but is that a stretch goal?

tl;dr: nope

…

https://reneweconomy.com.au/is-aemos-step-change-scenario-of-94-renewables-really-a-stretch-target-51027/

over the decade to FY2020 renewable generation additions (incremental energy) grew by 12% p.a. average — not smoothly, because… politics.

AEMO expects huge growth next 2 years.

if additions then revert to 2018-2021 average and grow by measly 1.2% p.a. over next 2 decades…

…we'll be on the purple line, which is basically the step change scenario.

we're effective already on the step change scenario. the RE sector is totally capable of building the required generation.

…but that doesn't mean it's assured…

to realise this future, AEMO has developed "living plans" (ISP & RIS) for:
• transmission
• storage
• grid integration

…we need to implement these
…and electricity retailers / big customers need to keep signing power purchase agreements

…or we plan coal retirements.

btw, under the step change scenario, #victoria would be coal free in 2037, and 99.6% renewables in 2042.

…contrary to what nuclear fan @BNW_Ben says:
https://twitter.com/BNW_Ben/status/1294137200532045824?s=20

…and ironically, under the scenario, our grid's emissions intensity would fall by 95% to 30 kgCO₂e/MWh, which is cleaner than france's.

for more, read @GilesParkinson's piece:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/is-aemos-step-change-scenario-of-94-renewables-really-a-stretch-target-51027/

[remember: scenarios aren't predictions — just possible futures.]

cont.

1. rough patch ahead... https://reneweconomy.com.au/investment-in-wind-solar-and-storage-falls-off-cliff-as-grid-and-policy-woes-kick-in-51079/