While people have long floated the scenario that Trump may refuse to leave office, last week, there has been a drastic shift, as Trump has openly announced that he is cutting funding to the Post Office, in an effort to attack mail-in voting.
Towards this end, Trump has installed Lewis DeJoy, a long-time Republican donor who has eliminated postal worker overtime, eliminated mail sorting machines, demanded states pay first class mail rates and removing mailboxes in a number of cities.
This move is being undertaken in order to bolster the argument that the election is flawed, which would allow Trump to refuse to acknowledge the results of the election, and would set up a scenario in which the election becomes indefinitely delayed as Trump stays in office.
Meanwhile, in Portland, the DHS was used as shock troops to put down the rebellion; a test run of a structure through which resistance could be put down, and in which they could test legal limits, loyalty among troops and the ability of the DHS to operate in this capacity.
Looking at any individual element of this in isolation is disturbing, but in aggregate it becomes a clear existential threat. The gutting of the @USPS is clearly an attempt to render the election invalid, which will cause a Constitutional crisis.
The combination of challenging the legitimacy of transition, consolidation of power over federal law enforcement and the deployment of these operatives to test the limitations of police power all constitute moves that are commonly seen in regimes degrading into authoritarianism.
In this scenario, it seems more and more clear that not only will he not accept a loss in the election and leave office, but he is positioning himself to be able to resist attempts to remove him either through Congressional or street actions.
The election may easily become a complete disaster. Beyond obstructing mail-in voting, at physical polling stations, where social distancing, long lines, and “poll monitors,” hired by the RNC to intimidate voters, are all likely to drive away many.
Yet ironically, Trump has laid bare that the protections + rights that many Americans assumed they had, are nothing other than good faith agreements and political traditions; the possibility of removing Trump through electoral action is becoming farther and farther from reality.
If Trump attempts to refuse to leave office or rejects the outcome of the election, the only possible responses are to not react or to mobilize on a mass scale; a small scale mobilization will likely be met with a heavy handed response by the federal law enforcement apparatus.
If we do not mobilize, repression will likely increase dramatically; Trump interpreting this as a green light to continue, unchecked, along the same trajectory as he is currently headed, just with fewer limitations. That is a terrifying reality.
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