Thread by @E_of_Justice, A series of 2013 vids reveal regime lack of a learning. In [...]

A series of 2013 vids reveal regime lack of a learning. In a 1-month span, JaI hit 3 armor IN THE EXACT SAME SPOT in Damascus
(على طريق مشفى تشرين).
Credit @Rebel44CZ & his archive in this observation. This is an example of why he finds such staggering regime armor loss.
1/x

Disclaimer: I am not a weapons or military expert; this is solely an amateur’s perspective.
There are numerous documented instances of ATGM 'turkey shoots' (again, see @Rebel44CZ work/archive); many such series span just a day or two.
2/x

They could unfold rapidly due to an ATGM’s effective range and the fact that it’s ordinance can be guided which gives it a versatile array of targets.
But the weapon used here is different and that makes this series rare: the recoilless rifle.
3/x

First, here is a screen grab of one of the ones used. Notice that it is on a tripod and not feasibly portable under pressure. (I believe its weight is over 100 lbs.)
4/x

Videos of recoilless rifle use can reveal some insight into its optimal employment. It takes planning, setup and sighting to use effectively. It is not firepower that can be used 'on the go' in rapid battle movement (some have been used in the ‘technical’ context tho).
5/x

Its shot cannot be guided in-flight onto a target like an ATGM; it strikes linearly (I have seen some rare use of ballistic angling to extend its range/reach). But basically, it must be lined up visually. Given this, it must be difficult to hit a moving target with it.
6/x

Targets of choice are static regime positions like sandbag pillboxes or fortified buildings (they don't move). It fires loud & kicks up a highly visible dust cloud, so it's not ideal for multi-fire in place w/o revealing location. In this very series firing position changes.
7/x

1st event: 10/17/2013 - recoilless hit on a moving T-72
8/x

2nd event: 10/24/2013 - recoilless hit on a moving BMP
9/x

3rd event: 11/17/2013 - recoilless hit on a moving BMP
10/x

That regime armor continued to traverse this point is mind-boggling to me.

Not w/o effort, a precise geolocation remained elusive to me, mostly b/c building/debris landmarks are often subsequently demolished/cleared, making it difficult to ID w/present satellite images.
11/x

However, based on the video descriptions, here is the general area I believe it to have occurred in (Tishreen Military Hosp. circled in purple).
12/x

This series suggests, IMO, that regime mistake avoidance culture is/was weak. Of many ways that an organized effort (even non-military) can learn from & avoid mistakes (reporting procedure, upstream escalation, post-hoc huddles), it would appear the regime uses none.
13/x

In fact, I believe the rebels were actually pushed back from the Tishreen front shortly after this series of events (need to confirm timing) which means that distance, not corrective action, may have bookended this series. Barzeh was put under ‘truce’ in early 2014 as well.
14/x

It looks like these events played out because no one talked to each other in the SAA or they did and no one bothered to document the danger in that section of road. Sheer incompetence, in any profession.
Reminds me of a famous scene in a legendary film…
15/x

Experts, please feel free to correct me if I have anything wrong…or elaborate where I might have overlooked something. Thank you for keeping me so informed!
@Rebel44CZ @CalibreObscura @Danspiun @GregoryPWaters @XI_interbrigade @Malcolmite @QalaatAlMudiq @worldonalert
16/16

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